000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061518 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1518 UTC Mon May 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 06N77W to 07N90W to 07N96W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N96W to 07N110W to 05N120W to 05N125W, then continues from 06N129W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the trough E of 88W and within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 132W and 139W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 96W and 100W, within 60 nm of a line from 03N110W to 09N108W to 12N103W, and within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 116W and 124W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front over Baja California Norte extends SW to 26N117W to 25N120W. Generally moderate NW winds prevail off the coast of Baja California between an offshore high pressure ridge and a low pressure trough over the Gulf of California. A high pressure ridge extending from near 32N135W to the Revillagigedo Islands will gradually strengthen through Thu. This will maintain moderate to locally fresh NW flow over the Baja California offshore waters through mid week. Elsewhere, NW to N winds west of Cabo Corrientes will strengthen to fresh speeds Tue night into Wed as the ridge builds SE well beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle winds will prevail south of Cabo Corrientes this week with moderate winds expected over the nearshore waters driven by diurnal heating. Seas in the southern Mexico offshore waters will build to 5-7 ft by Fri as long period S to SW swell moves into the region. Although agricultural burning continues in SE Mexico, recent surface observations along the coast suggest visibilities have improved over the waters adjacent to southern Mexico. Gulf of California: Strong SW to W gap winds are likely ongoing north of 29.5N this morning ahead of the weakening cold front described above. Another pulse of strong to possibly near gale force SW to W gap winds is expected over the northern Gulf tonight as the ridge strengthens west of the area. Looking ahead, another cold front will approach the northern Gulf on Thu night with gap winds once again expected to reach strong to near gale force speeds. Otherwise, light to moderate winds will prevail over the central and southern Gulf during the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Agricultural burning continues over Central America, but recent surface observations along the coast suggest visibilities have improved over the adjacent waters. Gulf of Papagayo: NE to E winds will pulse to fresh speeds over the Gulf of Papagayo primarily during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by late week as the local pressure gradient weakens with distant high pressure moving away from the area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will continue through Fri night. A significant S to SW swell event will move into the Ecuador offshore waters on Thu and spread northward across the region through Fri night. Seas will build to 7-10 ft near the Galapagos Islands with a peak wave period around 20 seconds. This swell will likely produce dangerous surf conditions along the coast of Central America and northern South America through the end of this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge is building in from the NW in the wake of a weakening cold front across Baja California Norte and the adjacent offshore waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades will prevail through the week to the south of the ridge axis. Earlier altimeter data and overnight model guidance indicated seas up to 8 ft roughly west of 135W from 08N to 14N. Generally 4-7 ft seas will prevail N of the ITCZ and S of the ridge axis through this week. Strong low pressure centered NE of Hawaii near 23N151W will slowly track NE over the next couple days while gradually weakening. Its associated frontal system will produce fresh to strong SE winds over the far western portion of the high seas domain late tonight into Tue. Looking ahead, a significant S to SW swell event will move into the southern waters on Wed and propagate northward through the end of the week. Seas will build to 10 ft south of the Equator on Thu with 8 ft seas roughly south of 05N between 90W and 125W by Fri. $$ Reinhart