000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060923 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 617 UTC Mon May 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from low pres 1008 mb near 09N74W to 09.5N87W to 06.5N100W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 06.5N100W to 07N110W to 05.5N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 30 nm either side of a line from 10.5N104W to 08N111.5W and within 60 nm either side of a line from 05N133W to 06.5N138.5W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 08N E of 83W, from 04.5N to 06.5N between 93W and 96W and from 03N to 07N between 103W and 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Light and variable winds will prevail over the Gulf of California during the next several days, except for in the northern Gulf where fresh to near gale force SW to W gap winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California through the week, with the strongest winds Thu night. A cold front extends from near Tijuana to 29N116.5W, then continues as a weakening cold front to 26N120W. The front will cross the northern Gulf of California and continue E over Sonora Mexico this morning. Another cold front will approach Baja California Norte by the end of this week. Both of these boundaries will help maintain gap winds that will pulse over the northern Gulf of California this week, primarily at night. Otherwise, high pressure currently ridging from near 32N138W to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands will gradually strengthen through Thu. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will prevail W and NW of Cabo Corrientes, and gentle to moderate winds S and SE of Cabo Corrientes. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft. Ongoing agricultural burning in SE Mexico and Central America continues, however, associated smoke and haze have diminished and allowed visibility to increase over the waters adjacent to southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Ongoing agricultural burning in SE Mexico and Central America continues, however, associated smoke and haze has diminished somewhat as have impacts to visibility. Gulf of Papagayo: Offshore winds will pulse to fresh over the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Light to gentle onshore winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will continue elsewhere through Fri night. A significant SW swell event will move into the Ecuador offshore waters by Thu night. Seas will build to 7 to 10 ft with a peak wave period around 20 seconds. This swell will spread to the coasts of northern South America and Central America, resulting in potentially dangerous surf conditions through the end of this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is building in from the NW in the wake of a cold front that is beginning to cross Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades will prevail through the week to the south of the ridge axis. Mainly 4 to 7 ft seas will prevail N of the ITCZ and S of the ridge axis through the end of this week. Strong low pressure currently centered NE of Hawaii near 23N152W will slowly head NE during the next couple of days. This system will weaken as it does so but will remain strong enough to generate strong SE winds over the waters from 22N to 26N and W of 139W Mon night through Tue night. A significant SW swell event will move into the south-central waters by Thu night, spreading northeastward through the end of the week. Seas will be 7 to 10 ft. $$ CAM