000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051610 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N74W TO 06.5N92W TO 09N98W. The ITCZ continues from 08N100W TO 07.5N122W TO 03.5N132W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 04N to 08N between 91W and 94W, within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ between 114W and 120W and from 04N to 07N W of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A collapsing ridge extends from well offshore of Baja California Sur southeastward to near 15N109W. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the Sierra Madres of Mexico is producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, with gentle to moderate NW to W winds occurring elsewhere from Las Tres Marias to the Tehuantepec area. These conditions are expected to persist today with daytime heating of the peninsula leading to locally strong winds near the coast through the evening hours. Winds will increase modestly offshore of Cabo Corrientes and become more NW tonight through mid week as the ridge reorganizes causing the pres gradient to tighten. Seas will mainly range between 4 and 7 ft in merging SW and NW swell. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds will prevail over the Gulf of California during the next several days, except for in the northern Gulf where fresh SW to W gap winds will develop this evening, ahead of dying cold front that will sweep eastward and inland across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf this evening through tonight. The winds will pulse to strong to near 30 kt later tonight and again Monday night. Ongoing agricultural burning, which is normally carried on during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is producing large areas of smoke spreading across both the area Pacific waters as well as the Gulf of Mexico. The coverage and density of the associated very hazy skies over the waters adjacent to Mexico has decreased to primarily the waters adjacent to the Mexican states of Guerrero to the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight, possibly due to the increasing extent of showers and thunderstorms over SE Mexico. These conditions will likely linger for days as burning activity continues across the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Ongoing agricultural burning, which is normally carried on during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is producing a large area of smoke, leading to hazy skies across the region to the west of the Gulf of Fonseca. However, the coverage and density of the smoke and haze over the waters adjacent to central America has decreased during the past 12 hours, possibly due to the increasing extent of showers and thunderstorms over Central America. Gulf of Papagayo: Offshore winds will occasionally pulse to fresh during the overnight and early morning hours. Light to gentle onshore winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will continue elsewhere through Thu night. A significant SW swell event will move into the Ecuador offshore waters by Thu night. Seas will build to 7 to 10 ft with wave period around 20 seconds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge extends SE from collapsed high pressure that was centered near 25N128W, into the offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes. This ridge continues to weaken as a frontal boundary currently curving SW from 32N121W to 26N125W to 25N132W moves eastward. The front will gradually dissipate as it nears Baja California Norte this evening and moves across the peninsula tonight. This will force the ridge to shift southward and reorganize. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds generally over the waters from 05N to 18N and west of 118W. Seas across this trade wind belt are currently running in the range of 6 to 8 ft, in a broad mix of swell. Trades will diminish and seas will subside in this area through Mon night as the pressure gradient weakens. Also, cross-equatorial SW swell is maintaining seas around 8 ft south of 03S to the W of 112W. The SW swell will decay and allow seas in this area to subside below 8 ft by tonight. A more significant SW swell event will move into the south-central waters by Thu night, spreading northeastward to the coast of Central America by the end of the week. $$ Stripling