000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 611 UTC Sun May 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from NW Colombia near 07.5N74W to 08.5N86W to 06.5N105W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N105W to 06N123W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 08N between 91W and 94W, within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 107W and 121W and from 04N to 07N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge extends SE from 1017 mb high pressure centered near 25N125W over the offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail offshore of Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. Winds will increase to fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes by mid week as the pres gradient tightens. Seas will mainly range between 4 and 7 ft in merging SW and NW swell. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds will prevail over the Gulf of California during the next several days, except for in the northern Gulf where fresh SW to W gap winds will develop this evening. The winds will pulse to strong to near gale force later tonight and again Monday night. Ongoing agricultural burning, which is normally carried on during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is producing smoke. However, the coverage and density of the smoke and haze over the waters adjacent to Mexico has decreased to primarily the waters adjacent to the Mexican state of Guerrero during the past 12 hours, possibly due to the increasing extent of showers and thunderstorms over SE Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Ongoing agricultural burning, which is normally carried on during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is producing smoke. However, the coverage and density of the smoke and haze over the waters adjacent to central America has decreased during the past 12 hours, possibly due to the increasing extent of showers and thunderstorms over Central America. Gulf of Papagayo: Offshore winds will occasionally pulse to fresh, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Light to gentle onshore winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will continue elsewhere through Thu night. A significant SW swell event will move into the Ecuador offshore waters by Thu night. Seas will build to 7 to 10 ft with wave period around 20 seconds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge extends SE from 1017 mb high pressure centered near 25N125W into the offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes. This ridge is weakening as a frontal boundary currently curving SW from 32N123W to 26N127W to 24N133W moves east. The front will accelerate towards the east tonight and gradually dissipate as it nears Baja California Peninsula Norte Sun night. This will force the ridge to shift southward and reorganize. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds generally over the waters from 06N to 15N and west of 115W. Seas across this trade wind belt are currently running in the range of 6 to 8 ft, in a broad mix of swell. Trades will diminish and seas will subside in this area through Mon night as the pressure gradient weakens. Also, cross-equatorial SW swell is maintaining seas around 8 ft south of 02S to the W of 113W. The SW swell will decay and allow seas in this area to subside below 8 ft by tonight. A significant SW swell event will move into the south-central waters by Thu night, spreading northeastward to the coast of Central America by the end of the week. $$ CAM