000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050218
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough axis extends from near the coast of Colombia at 09N79W
to 09N90W to 07N102W. The intertropical convergence zone axis 
extends from 07N102W to 07N120W to 06N130W to 04N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N 
between 112W and 125W, within 75 nm either side of the ITCZ 
between 125W and 135W, and also from 03N to 07N west of
136W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak ridge extends SE from 1017 mb high pressure centered near
25N125W, southeastward into the offshore waters W of Cabo 
Corrientes. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail offshore of 
Baja California, with gentle to moderate elsewhere. Winds will 
increase to fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes by mid 
week as the pres gradient tightens. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft
in merging SW and NW swell.

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds in the Gulf of
California will prevail through the next several days, except in
the northern Gulf where fresh SW to W gap winds will develop 
tonight, increasing to strong to near gale force Sun night, 
pulsing through the upcoming week, mainly at night.

Ongoing agricultural burning, which is normally carried on 
during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is 
producing smoke. This is leading to hazy conditions across much 
of the area N of the ITCZ and E of between Manzanillo, Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Ongoing agricultural burning, which is normally carried on 
during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is 
producing smoke. This is leading to hazy conditions across much 
of the area offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador. 

Gulf of Papagayo: Offshore winds will occasionally pulse to 
fresh, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours.

Light to gentle onshore winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range 
will continue elsewhere through Thu night. A significant SW swell
event will move into the Ecuador offshore waters towards the end
of the week. Seas will build to 7 to 10 ft with wave period
around 20 seconds.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge extends SE from 1017 mb high pressure centered near
25N125W, southeastward into the offshore waters W of Cabo 
Corrientes. This ridge is weakening as a frontal boundary 
currently curving SW from 32N126W to 25N129W moves slowly east. 
The front will accelerate towards the east tonight and gradually 
dissipate as it nears Baja California Peninsula Norte Sun night. 
This will force the ridge to shift southward and reorganize.

Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds generally over the waters, from 06N to 15N west 
of 115W. Seas across this tradewind belt are currently running in
the range of 6 to 9 ft, in a broad mix of swell. Trades and seas
in this area will diminish and subside during the remainder of 
the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens.

Also, cross-equatorial SW swell is maintaining seas of 8 to 9 ft 
south of 12N to the W of 100W. The SW swell will decay and allow
seas in this area to subside below 8 ft by Sun afternoon. A 
significant SW swell event will move into the south-central 
waters by mid week, spreading northeastward through the end of 
the week. 

$$
Lewitsky