000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat May 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N73.5W TO 05.5N84W TO 08.5N96W TO 06N105W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to 08N113W TO 05N124W TO 04N135W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 04.5N TO 08N E OF 81W, from 07.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W, from 03N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 91W AND 100W, and from 04N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 133W AND 139W. Numerous strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 08N between 116W and 127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high near 26N126W, southeastward across the offshore waters to just W of the Revillagigedo Islands near 18N109W. Moderate NW winds continue across the offshore waters of Baja California and will generally prevail through Sun night as the ridge weakens over the weekend. Afternoon heating of the peninsula will lead to fresh afternoon and evening winds within 60 nm of the coast. Seas across these offshore waters W of Baja currently range between 4 and 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Little change is expected today before new cross equatorial SW swell arrives along the S coast of Mexico and causes seas to build around a foot to between 5 and 7 ft tonight through Sun. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds will dominate the Gulf waters through this evening. On Sun, a weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte and support strong to near gale force SW to W winds over the northern Gulf of California. Strong winds N of 29N will diminish by Tue morning. Otherwise, the remaining offshore waters of Mexico will be dominated by light to gentle NW to W winds and seas of 4-5 ft. This same SW swell is moving into the central and southeast Mexican offshore waters this morning and will raise sea heights to 6-7 ft by Sun. The remaining offshore waters of Mexico will be dominated by light to gentle NW to W winds, except winds will increase to fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes by mid week as the pres gradient tightens. Ongoing agricultural burning, which is normally carried on during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is producing smoke. This is leading to hazy conditions across much of the area N of the ITCZ between Manzanillo, Mexico and Guatemala. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh offshore winds will diminish to gentle across the Gulf of Papagayo region today, then increase to moderate to fresh again Mon night through Wed night. Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will continue through Wed night elsewhere, with light to gentle onshore flow. Active convection along the coast of Costa Rica will continue for the next 24 hours before fading in coverage. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge extends SE from 1018 mb high pressure centered near 26N126W, southeastward into the offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes. This ridge is weakening as a frontal boundary currently curving SW from 30N129W to 23N135W moves slowly E. The front will begin to accelerate towards the east today and tonight and gradually dissipate as it nears Baja California Peninsula Norte Sun night. This will force the ridge to shift southward and reorganize. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds generally over the waters, from 05N to 18N W of 116W. Seas across this tradewind belt are currently running in the range of 6 to 9 ft, in a broad mix of swell. Trades and seas in this area will diminish and subside during the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens. Also, cross-equatorial SW swell is maintaining seas of 8 to 9 ft south of 13N to the W of 94W. The SW swell will decay and allow seas in this area to subside below 8 ft by Sun afternoon. $$ Stripling