000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040916 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 609 UTC Sat May 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from low pres 1008 mb centered near 09N75W to 08N96W to 07N107W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 07N107W to 07.5N113W to 05N130W to beyond 05.5N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 04N to 06N between 121W and 126W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 90 nm either side of a line from 06.5N117W to 03.5N130W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 84W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 04N to 07N between 94W and 98W and from 03N to 05N between 134W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends across the offshore waters from near 21N116W to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands near 18N108W. Moderate NW winds continue across the offshore waters of Baja California and will generally prevail through Sun night as the ridge shifts slightly S and weakens over the weekend. Afternoon heating of the peninsula will lead to fresh afternoon and evening winds within 60 nm of the coast. Seas along the W coast of Baja currently range between 4 and 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Little change is expected today before a new round of cross equatorial SW swell arrives along the S coast of Mexico and causes seas to build around a foot to between 5 and 7 ft tonight and Sun. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds will dominate the Gulf waters through this evening. On Sun, a weakening cold front will approach Baja California Norte and support strong to near gale force SW to W winds over the northern Gulf of California. Strong winds N of 29N will diminish by Tue morning. Otherwise, the remaining offshore waters of Mexico will be dominated by light to gentle NW to W winds and seas of 4-5 ft. This same SW swell will reach the central and southeast Mexican offshore waters Sat morning and cause sea heights to build to between 6 and 7 ft by Sun. The remaining offshore waters of Mexico will be dominated by light to gentle NW to W winds, except winds will increase to fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes by mid week as the pres gradient tightens. Ongoing agricultural burning, which is normally carried on during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is producing smoke. This is leading to hazy conditions across much of the area N of the ITCZ between Manzanillo, Mexico and Guatemala. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh offshore winds will diminish to gentle across the Gulf of Papagayo today, then increase to moderate to fresh again Mon night through Wed night. Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will continue through Wed night elsewhere, with light to gentle onshore flow. Active convection along the coast of Costa Rica will continue for the next 24 hours before fading in coverage. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends SE from 1018 mb high pressure centered near 26.5N125.5W toward the offshore waters. This ridge is weakening as a frontal boundary currently curving SW from 32N130W to 23N135W to beyond 21N140W moves slowly E. The front will continue to move eastward and finally dissipate near Baja California Peninsula Norte Sun night. This will force the ridge to shift southward and reorganize. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds generally over the waters, from 06N to 17N W of 115W. Seas across this tradewind belt are currently running in the range of 6 to 9 ft, in a broad mix of swell. Trades and seas in this area will diminish and subside during the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens. Also, cross-equatorial SW swell is maintaining seas of 8 to 9 ft from 03.4S to 12N W of 105W. The SW swell will decay and allow seas in this area to subside below 8 ft by Sun afternoon. $$ CAM