000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031610 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu May 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N74W TO 06.5N82W TO 09N94W TO 07N107W, then transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to 07.5N111W TO 04N120W TO 05N131W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N E of 90W, from 03.5N to 07.5N between 90W and 102W, and within 180 nm N and 60 nm S of ITCZ between 123W and 139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A narrowing high pressure ridge enters the forecast waters near 32N127W, and extends southeastward to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands near 16N109W. Moderate NW winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California this morning and will generally prevail through Sun night as the ridge shifts slightly southward and weakens over the weekend. Afternoon heating of the peninsula will lead to fresh afternoon and evening winds within 60 nm of the coast. Seas are currently in the 4-6 ft range in northerly swell. Little change is expected through Sat afternoon before new cross equatorial SW swell arrives into the region and raising seas to 5-7 ft Sat night and Sun. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds will dominate the Gulf waters through Sat evening. On Sun, the remnants of a front will approach Baja California Norte and support strong southwest to west winds in the northern Gulf of California. Strong winds N of 29N will diminish by Tue morning. Otherwise, the remainder offshore waters of Mexico will be dominated by light to gentle NW to W winds and seas of 4-5 ft. This same SW swell will reach these central and southeast Mexican offshore waters Sat morning and begin to raise sea heights to 6-7 ft by Sun. Ongoing agricultural burning, which are normally carried on during this time of year in southeast Mexico and Central America, is producing smoke leading to hazy conditions across much of the area north of the ITCZ between Manzanillo, Mexico and Guatemala. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate offshore winds during the daytime will pulse to fresh during the overnight hours through Sat. Winds will diminish across the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night, and then increase to moderate to fresh again Mon night through Tue. Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4-6 ft range will continue through Tue elsewhere, with light to gentle onshore flow. Active convection across much of the area E of 90W this morning will remain active for the next 24 hours before fading in coverage. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge enters the forecast waters near 32N127W, and extends southeastward toward the offshore waters. This ridge is weakening as a low pressure system and associated cold front moves slowly eastward along 135W this morning. The front will continue to move eastward and dissipate W of the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters by Sun. This will force the ridge to sink southward and reorganize. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the west central waters, from generally 05N to 18N westward of 112W. Seas across this tradewind belt are currently in the range of 6-9 ft, in a broad mix of swell. These trades and seas will diminish and subside during the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens. Also, cross-equatorial southwest swell will build seas to 8 ft from the equator to 10N between 100W and 130W. The swell will gradually decay and begin subside Sun. $$ Stripling