000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030230
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough axis extends from western Panama near 09N84W to 08N90W
to 09N100W to 07N111W. The ITCZ continues from 07N111W to 04N120W
to 05N133W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 84W and 95W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 102W and
105W, and also from 04N to 06N between 111W and 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A high pressure ridge enters the forecast waters near 32N128W, 
and extends south-southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Gentle to moderate winds prevail off the west coast of 
the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. The
ridge will weaken and shift southeast by the end of the weekend 
as a front or trough move into the area.

Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds will dominate the gulf
waters through Sat evening. On Sun, a front or trough will 
approach Baja California Norte by the end of the weekend into 
early next week, increasing gap winds in the northern Gulf of 
California to near gale Sun night into Mon, gradually diminishing
thereafter.

Otherwise, the remainder offshore waters of Mexico will be 
dominated by light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft.

Ongoing agricultural burning, which are normally carried on 
during this time of year in southeast Mexico and Central 
America, is generating smoke leading to hazy conditions along and
adjacent to the coast of Mexico from Guerrero to the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate daytime winds will pulse to fresh 
during the overnight hours. Winds will diminish across the gulf
of Papagayo through early Sat, and then again early Tue.

Otherwise and elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevailing 
through the weekend, and seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge enters the forecast waters near 32N128W, 
and extends south-southeastward toward the offshore waters. This
ridge is weakening due to a cold front that has entered and
extends from 32N135W to 26N140W with scattered showers within 60
nm on either side of the boundary. Winds will briefly strengthen
ahead of the cold front over the NW waters today through Fri 
morning. The front will continue to move eastward and dissipate W
of the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters by Sun.

Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds across the west central waters, along with seas
in the range of 5-8 ft. These trades and seas will diminish and
subside during the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens.

Also, cross-equatorial southwest swell reaching the equator will
build seas greater than 8 ft across the equator tonight. The 
swell will gradually decay and subside Sun through early next 
week.

$$
Lewitsky