000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021500
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1229 UTC Thu May 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

Trough extends from 07N78W to 06N84W to 06N106W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N106W to 07N118W. It then resumes from 04N123W 
to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 09N between 82W and 88W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 88W
and 119W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
12N to 15N between 90W and 94W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A high pressure ridge enters the forecast waters near 30N124W,
and extends south- southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Gentle to moderate winds prevail off the west coast of 
the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. 
The ridge will stay in place through the end of the weekend, 
maintaining these winds and seas through the period. The 
remainder offshore waters of Mexico will be dominated by light 
to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft.

Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds will dominate the gulf
waters through Sat evening. On Sun, gap winds across the Baja
peninsula will strengthen winds across the northern gulf waters.

Ongoing agricultural burning, which are normally carried on 
during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is 
generating smoke leading to hazy conditions along and adjacent 
to the coast of Mexico from Guerrero to the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate daytime winds will pulse to fresh 
during the overnight hours. Winds will diminish across the gulf
of Papagayo on Fri, with light to gentle winds prevailing
through the weekend. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range
will prevail. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the northern forecast waters. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
from 10N to 20N W of 115W with seas in the range of 5-8 ft. 

Winds will briefly strengthen ahead of a cold front over the NW 
waters today through Fri morning. The front will continue to 
move eastward and dissipate W of the Baja California Peninsula 
offshore waters by Sun.

Otherwise, cross-equatorial SW swell will reach the equator 
today. Seas greater than 8 ft will across the equator tonight.


$$
AL