000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020837 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 06N85W to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 06N110W to 05N126W, then resumes west of a trough near 04N128W to beyond 0N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 07N between 81W and 100W and from 02N to 10N between 110W and 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge over the NE Pacific waters N of 15N and extending southeastward to the offshore waters of Baja California Sur continue to support gentle to moderate NW winds off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. The ridge will stay in place through Mon, thus maintaining these winds along with seas in the range of 4-6 ft. The remainder offshore waters of Mexico from Mazatlan to Puerto Angel will be dominated by light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft. Gulf of California: Light and gentle variable winds will dominate the gulf waters through Sat evening. On Sun, a center of low pressure over southern Arizona will deepen, thus resulting in fresh to strong SW to W winds N of 29N Sun evening through Mon morning. Otherwise, ongoing agricultural burning, which is normal during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is generating smoke leading to hazy conditions along and over the offshore waters from Jalisco to Tapachula. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE to E winds over the gulf will diminish to fresh later this morning and to moderate during the evening hours as the pressure gradient reduces over the NW and SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse each night through Sat. Variable to gentle winds will dominate afterwards through Mon. With the exception of moderate N winds in the gulf of Panama through Fri and moderate SW winds over Ecuador and Colombia offshore waters on Fri, light to gentle variable winds will dominate elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails across the forecast waters N of 15N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ as well as the presence of a surface trough along 126W supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N W of 115W with seas in the range of 5-7 ft. Seas in the vicinity of the trough will increase to 8 ft by Thu morning and will prevail N of the ITCZ and W of 126W through Sat evening as another trough develops and track westward. A cold front over the NW forecast waters extending from 30N137W to 27N140W will briefly enhance winds to strong ahead of it by Thu night. These winds with seas to 8 ft will affect the forecast waters N of 29N between 132W and 139W through Fri morning when the cold front will reach from 30N133W to 23N139W. The front will continue to move eastward and dissipate W of the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters by Sun. Otherwise, cross-equatorial SW swell will reach the equator today, with 8-9 ft seas, which will affect the region S of 06N between 95W and 135W through Sat evening. $$ Ramos