000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011005
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from 07N77W to 06N86W to 05N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N95W to 07N114W to 05N122W, then resumes W of a 
surface trough near 05N123W to 03N133W to beyond 02N140W. 
Isolated moderate from 03N to 08N E of 88W. Numerous to 
scattered moderate to strong convection from 02N to 10N between 
112W and 124W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N to 13N W 
of 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A high pressure ridge extends south-southeastward over the NE 
Pacific waters from 30N134W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. 
This ridge will stay in place through the end of the weekend, 
thus supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds across Baja 
California offshore waters and over the offshore waters from 
Mazatlan to Manzanillo, Mexico. Light to gentle variable winds 
will dominate the offshore waters of Michoacan, Guerrero and 
Oxaca. 

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW to W winds are from 29.5N 
to 30.5N associated with the tail of a surface trough moving 
across the northern gulf waters. The trough will dissipate later 
this morning and the winds will diminish. Variable light to 
gentle winds will dominate the remainder gulf through Sun.   

Ongoing agricultural burning, which are normally carried on 
during this time of year in SE Mexico and Central America, is 
generating smoke leading to hazy conditions along and adjacent 
to the coast of Mexico from Guerrero to the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tighter pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean 
will be enhancing NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo during 
late night and morning hours through Thu morning. Elsewhere, 
winds and seas will remain quiescent through the end of the 
weekend. No significant long-period swell will be impacting the 
area through at least Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 15N supporting 
NE to E moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 23N and W of 
112W. A weak cold front will reach the NW forecast waters this 
evening, but no significant winds or seas will likely be 
associated with it, except briefly on Thu evening when fresh to 
strong winds will develop within 75 nm ahead of the front N of 
28N. The front should dissipate by Sun evening before reaching 
the Mexican offshore waters.

Cross-equatorial SW swell of 8 to 9 ft should reach the southern
border near the equator and 120W late Thu. This will propagate 
through much of the forecast area east of 120W Fri through early 
Sun. Combined seas of 8 ft or higher will generally be confined 
to the waters south of 02N and west of 100W.

$$ 
NR