000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280135
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2352 UTC Sat Apr 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0120 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from just W of the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 05N97W to 05N102W, where it transitions to the ITCZ 
and continues to 04N108W to 05N121W to 04N128W to 05N135W to 
beyond the discussion area at 06N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 90W 
and 100W and within 60 nm either side of a line from 09N113W to 
06N124W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered W of the 
offshore waters near 28N124W. The pressure gradient on the E side
of the high is maintaining gentle to moderate NW to N winds over
the forecast waters. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. With the 
exception of winds briefly becoming fresh along and just offshore
the central part of the Baja California Peninsula this 
afternoon, expect near steady state conditions through Thu. Fresh
N swell is forecast to cross 32N on Mon and affect the offshore 
waters N of 27N through Tue night, causing seas there to build 
around a foot, before they subside back to the 4 to 6 foot range 
Thu.

Gulf of California: Fresh SW winds will develop over the 
northern Gulf of California tonight and become strong Mon night
and Tue as a weak trough approaches. Seas N of 30N will build to
4-6 ft during this time frame. Winds will then diminish to fresh
around noon Tue then become light to gentle S to SW winds Tue 
afternoon. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have 
diminished to light and variable as high pressure over the Gulf 
of Mexico shifts E. Wave heights fell below 8 ft this evening. 
Light to moderate onshore flow will generally prevail across the 
Tehuantepec region through Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will become strong Mon night through Tue night. 
Highest winds and seas will occur at night.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate N winds will diminish to gentle Sun
night, then remain gentle through Thu. Seas in this area will be
maintained in the 3 to 5 ft range by S to SW swell arriving from
the Southern Hemisphere.

Combined seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands are in 
the 5 to 7 ft range in S to SW swell based on the latest 
altimeter data in this region. Long-period S to SW swell will 
maintain seas between 5 and 7 ft for the offshore waters west of 
Ecuador through Wed night.

Satellite imagery continues to confirm weather observations of
smoke along the Central American coasts. Ongoing agricultural
burning during the past few days across SE Mexico and Central 
America have been transported SW over the Pacific offshore 
waters, and can be seen in satellite imagery from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec to well offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo to 08N92W. 
Observations suggest visibilities are reduced to the 3-5 nm 
range. This smoke may take several days to clear the region as 
fires continue and moderate NE low level winds prevail across the
region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate NE to E trades are generally present over the waters 
from 06N to 17N and W of 110W. Altimeter data from this afternoon
from this area suggests that corresponding wave heights are in 
the 6 to 8 ft range. Rather weak high pressure over the northern 
waters will maintain moderate trades across the trade wind belt 
through early next week as seas remain in the 6 to 8 ft range.

A weakening 1016 mb surface low is analyzed near 30.5N130.5W, 
with a trough extending WSW from the low to 27N134W to 26N139W. 
The low is producing little in the way of sensible weather. The 
low is tracking slowly ENE and is forecast to head slowly E 
while dragging the trough over the northern waters tonight 
through Mon. Winds in the vicinity of the low are expected to 
remain less than 20 kt with seas 6 to 7 ft across the far NW 
waters. Higher seas, likely to peak at 8 or 9 ft, are forecast to
move into the north- central waters north of 28N on Mon as fresh
north swell propagates through those waters. The low is expected
to weaken into a trough before it reaches the coast of Baja 
California Norte Mon night.

Cross-equatorial SW swell in the far southern waters will spread
northward across much of the forecast area east of 120W through 
Mon night, then subside. Seas to 8 ft will generally be confined
to the waters south of the 01N and west of 95W. A more robust
round of Southern Hemisphere swell could cross the Equator by Thu
night.

$$
CAM