000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261530 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1335 UTC Fri Apr 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North winds will become strong over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning and continue through this evening. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight due to a tight localized gradient that will become established over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec as high pressure over SE Mexico encroaches on relatively low pressure over the eastern Pacific. Expect this short lived gale event to last until early Sat morning. Wave heights will peak between 8 and 11 ft during this event before quickly subsiding to 8 ft around noon Sat then to less than 8 ft by Sat evening. Seas of 8 ft will propagate downstream from the Gulf to near 12N96W before subsiding Sat afternoon. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more specific marine details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from a 1010 mb low over NW Colombia near 10N74W to the Pacific coast of Colombia at 05N77W, then continues to 03.5N81W to 05.5N88W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N105W to 06N116W to 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 06N between 84.5W and 88.5W and within an area bounded by 09N110W to 04N110W to 05N125W to 10N135W to 14N123W to 09N110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Relatively weak high pressure lingers over these waters, with the associated gradient maintaining gentle to moderate NW to N winds over the forecast waters. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. With the exception of winds briefly increasing to fresh speeds along and just offshore the central part of the Baja California Peninsula on Sat, expect near steady state conditions through Sun night. A NW swell will cause combined seas in the far NW portion of the offshore waters to build around a foot Mon night and Tue. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW gap winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California Sun night through Mon night as a weakening cold front approaches. S to SW winds will decrease to fresh Tue. Seas will be 3 ft or less, with the exception of seas building to 3-5 ft in the far northern part on Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: See above for details regarding a short- lived, late season gale event forecast to begin tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will become strong Mon night through Tue night. Winds and seas will be highest at night. Gulf of Panama: Moderate winds will diminish to gentle Sat, then remain gentle through Tue night. Seas in this area will be maintained in the 3 to 5-foot range by S to SW swell arriving from the Southern Hemisphere.. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands are currently running between 5 and 7 ft in S to SW swell based on latest altimeter data in this region. Long period S to SW swell will maintain seas between 5 and 7 feet for the offshore waters W of Ecuador through Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate NE to E trades are present over the waters from 08N to 17N and W of 117W as depicted by scatterometer data from around 06Z. Latest altimeter data noted over this area suggests that corresponding wave heights are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Rather weak high pressure over the northern waters will maintain moderate trades through early next week with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. A trough extends SSW from weak 1013 mb low centered near 29N136W to 23N138W. The low will remain nearly stationary through tonight, then drift east along 29N while dragging a developing cold front over the northern waters Sat and Sat night. The front is then expected to weaken to a trough Sun. Winds in the vicinity of the low are expected to remain less than 20 kt with seas less than 8 ft. SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere are arriving in the far southern waters and will spread northward across much of the forecast area east of 120W through this weekend. Seas to 8 ft will generally be confined to the waters south of the Equator and west of 95W. $$ CAM