000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251610 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Apr 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N75W TO 02.5N83.5W to low pres 1008 mb near 07.5N98W. The ITCZ begins near 07N99W and continues to 03.5N116W TO 06N124W, then resumes from 07N127W to beyond 04N140W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the trough and ITCZ between 92W and 116W, and from 08.5N to 12N between 118W and 133W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 05.5N between 121W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends SE over the Baja California offshore waters while a low pressure trough is analyzed along the length of the Baja Peninsula. Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate NW wind flow across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are running 4-5 ft in mainly NW swell. In general, these conditions will prevail across the Baja offshore waters through the weekend as a weak high pressure center develops and persists west of the offshore waters along 26N. Farther south, gentle W to NW winds prevail across the offshore waters between Las Tres Marias and Puerto Angel with seas generally 3-5 ft. Overall, little change in conditions is expected through the weekend. Gulf of California: Light to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf of California through Sun with seas generally 3 ft or less. Fresh SW gap winds will develop over the northern Gulf Sun night and Mon ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas will build to 4-6 ft on Mon north of 30N within the locally strong winds. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Overnight scatterometer data revealed gentle onshore winds near the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a weak pressure gradient persists over southern Mexico. Light to gentle onshore winds will continue across the region through tonight. Strong N gap winds will develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and increase to just below gale force Fri night as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front. These N gaps winds will then end Sat afternoon and winds become variable Sat night then remain gentle through Mon as high pressure moves eastward and the pressure gradient relaxes. Seas across and downstream of Tehuantepec will build to 10 ft late Fri night into Sat morning within the area of 30 kt winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo have diminished to 15-20 kt this morning as the local pressure gradient is weakening. Generally moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure building north of the region will support fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf Sun night through Mon night with seas building to 6-9 ft early next week. Gulf of Panama: Moderate N to NE winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Fri with 3-5 ft seas in mixed SW swell and N wind waves. Lighter winds will prevail through the weekend and into early next week. Increasing S to SW swell will build seas to 4-6 ft by Sun. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands are currently 3-6 ft in S to SW swell based on overnight altimeter data in this region. Seas will build to 5-7 ft within the outer waters by Fri as a new set of S to SW swell moves into the area. These conditions will persist near the Galapagos Islands through Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate trade winds prevail over the waters roughly from 08N to 18 N and west of 118W based on overnight scatterometer data. Available altimeter passes within the trades suggest seas have generally subsided to 6-8 ft. Locally higher winds and seas are possible within the scattered convection associated with a wave along the ITCZ near 125W. Weakening high pressure over the northern waters will maintain moderate trades over the next several days with seas remaining 5-7 ft. Weak low pressure is expected to develop near 28.5N134.5W on Thu night and remain nearly stationary through Fri, then move east along 29N while pulling a developing cold front over the northern waters on Sat. Associated winds are expected to be 20 kt or less with seas less than 8 ft. Another pulse of SW swell will move into the far southern waters later today and spread northward across much of the forecast area east of 120W through the weekend. Seas to 8 ft will generally be confined to the waters south of the Equator and west of 100W. $$ Stripling