000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1916 UTC Wed Apr 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N78W to 05N99W. The ITCZ begins near 05N99W and continues to 07N119W then resumes west of a surface trough from 07N122W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge persists over the Baja California offshore waters. Latest scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the waters west of Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds prevailed between Baja California Norte and Guadalupe Island. In general, gentle NW flow will prevail west of Baja California over the next several days as weak high pressure reorganizes west of the offshore waters along 26N. Moderate NW winds are expected between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend. Gulf of California: Light to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf through Sun with seas generally 3 ft or less. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds may develop over the northern Gulf Sun night ahead of an approaching cold front with seas building to 3-5 ft. Gentle W to NW winds prevail across the offshore waters between Las Tres Marias and Puerto Angel today, where seas are generally 4-5 ft in mixed NW and S swell. Little change in overall conditions is expected through the weekend. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient over southern Mexico will result in generally light to gentle onshore winds across the region through Thu night. Strong N gap winds will develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Fri through Sat as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving SE across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds may pulse to near gale force speeds late Fri night with seas building to 10 ft by Sat morning. Winds will diminish to gentle Sat night and Sun as high pressure moves eastward and the local pressure gradient relaxes. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh easterly winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu. A weakening pressure gradient will allow winds to diminish to more gentle speeds Thu night through Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure building north of the region will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf again on Sun night. Gulf of Panama: Moderate N to NE winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Thu with 4-6 ft seas today becoming 3-5 ft in mixed SW swell and N wind waves. Then, winds will become light through the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes over the region. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will remain 3-6 ft in S to SW swell as gentle winds prevail across the southern waters. By Fri, seas will build to 5-7 ft near the Galapagos Islands as a new pulse of S to SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends across the northern waters with 1027 mb high pressure centered north of the forecast area near 36N138W. Latest scatterometer and altimeter data revealed a swath of moderate to fresh trade winds and seas 7-9 ft roughly from 07N to 18N west of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds prevail south of the ridge with seas less than 8 ft. Elsewhere, two surface troughs producing minor waves in the easterly flow are igniting areas of scattered convection described above, with the troughs in the trade wind belt along 97W-98W, and along 121W. A deep layered upper level low pressure system across the NW waters will weaken the surface ridge today and tonight, and the slackening pressure gradient will result in subsiding trade winds and seas across the tropics. Weak low pressure is expected to develop near 28.5N134W by Thu night and remain nearly stationary through Fri. Seas will remain less than 8 ft within the associated moderate to fresh tradewinds. Another round of SW swell will move into the far southern waters Thu with seas again building to 8 ft. Similar wave heights will persist through the weekend as SW swell continues impacting the region. $$ ERA