062 AXPZ20 KNHC 230915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0915 UTC Tue Apr 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N85W to low pres 1010 mb near 06N92W to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 04N105W to 08N119W, then resumes from 07N123W to 05N128W to beyond 05N140W. A surface trough extending from 03N122W to 11N120W splits the ITCZ between 119W and 123W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 08N to 12N between 113W and 120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the trough between 80W and 86W, within 120 nm north of the trough between 91W and 94W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 94W and 97W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge persists over the offshore waters west of Baja California. 05Z scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh NW breezes off Baja California Sur with the strongest winds south of Cabo San Lucas. Further north, earlier altimeter data revealed 8-9 ft seas over the Baja California Norte waters as residual NW swell impacted the region. Winds and seas will generally subside through the week as the pressure gradient weakens over the region. Gulf of California: Light to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf through Sat with seas generally 3 ft or less. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient over southern Mexico will result in variable, light to gentle winds across the region through Thu night. Strong N winds are expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Fri into Sat as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish later this morning. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds over the Gulf tonight into Wed morning with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Looking ahead, a weakening pressure gradient will allow winds to diminish to gentle speeds Wed night through Sat night. Gulf of Panama: Moderate N to NE breezes will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Thu with seas generally 3-5 ft in mixed SW swell and N to NE wind waves. Winds will become light later in the week as the pressure gradient slackens over the region. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will remain between 3-6 ft in S to SW swell as light to gentle winds prevail across the southern waters. By Fri, seas will build to 5-7 ft near the Galapagos Islands as another set of S to SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters with moderate to fresh trade winds south of the ridge and west of 130W per recent scatterometer data. Seas are still likely 8-9 ft within these trades west of 135W. These conditions will gradually abate later today through Thu as strong high pressure north of the region begins to weaken in response to low pressure approaching from the west. Seas will subside below 8 ft in this region by Wed morning. Residual long period NW swell over the waters north of 27N and east of 130W is producing 8-9 ft seas. Wave heights in this region will subside below 8 ft later today as the lingering swell decays and winds remain gentle to moderate. Elsewhere, S to SW swell will produce seas to 8 ft generally south of the Equator and west of 110W through tonight. Another round of SW swell will move into the far southern waters Fri and Fri night with seas building to 8 ft and persisting into the weekend. $$ Reinhart