000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1939 UTC Mon Apr 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pres 1010 mb centered near 09N75W to 04N80W to low pres 1010 mb centered near 06N91W to 06N99W. The ITCZ continues from 06N99W to 06N110W. The ITCZ resumes from 02.5N116W to 04.5N130W to 02.5N137W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 90 nm either side of the trough between 80W and 90W, from 02N to 07N between 90W and 94W and from 07N to 10N between 123W and 127W. A surface trough that splits the ITCZ between 110W and 116W extends from 01N114W to 08N111W. Scattered moderate convection is found within 180 nm either side of the trough. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge persists over the offshore waters west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a low pressure trough over the Gulf of California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro based on earlier scatterometer data and ship observations. NW swell associated with an old, now dissipated frontal boundary will continue impacting the waters N of 27N and E of 130W tonight and Tue with seas up to 8 ft west of Guadalupe Island. Winds and seas will subside through the rest of the week as the pressure gradient weakens over the region. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh gap winds over the northern Gulf of California have diminished in the wake of an old frontal boundary that dissipated earlier today. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf through Fri with seas generally 3 ft or less. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient over southern Mexico will result in variable, light to gentle winds across the region today through Fri. By late Fri night, fresh to strong N winds may develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure builds over the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue pulsing across the Gulf through early Tue. Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. The pressure gradient will slacken by midweek with winds diminishing to fresh speeds by Wed, then becoming gentle to moderate for the rest of the week. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate N to NE breezes will persist across the Gulf of Panama this week with seas generally running 3 to 5 ft in mixed SW swell and N to NE wind waves. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will remain between 4 and 6 ft in S to SW swell as light to gentle winds prevail across the southern waters. By Fri, seas will build to between 5 and 7 ft near the Galapagos Islands as another set of SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends SE from 32N135W across the northern waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds south of 20N and west of 130W. Corresponding seas are running 8 to 9 ft in the strongest trades with the highest seas near 140W. These conditions will gradually abate as strong high pressure begins to weaken Tue through Thu in response to low pressure approaching from the west. This will result in diminishing trade winds and seas subsiding below 8 ft for this region by midweek. A set of long period NW swell previously generated by a cold front that crossed the northern Gulf of California last night will continue impacting the waters north of 27N and east of 130W. Seas already peaked between 8 and 10 ft this morning. Seas are beginning to subside and will continue subsiding Tue as the pressure gradient in this area weakens and winds diminish. Elsewhere, S to SW swell will produce seas to 8 ft generally south of the Equator and west of 110W tonight through Tue night. Looking ahead, another round of SW swell will move into the far southern waters Fri and Fri night with seas once again building to 8 ft. $$ CAM