000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0912 UTC Mon Apr 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06N77W to 05.5N98W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N98W to 06N102W to 04N115W to 04N132W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of the trough between 83W and 85W, within 120 nm north of the trough between 94W and 98W, and from 06N to 10N between 108W and 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge persists over the offshore waters west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a low pressure trough over the Gulf of California is producing moderate to fresh NW winds over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro based on recent scatterometer data and ship observations. NW swell associated with a weakening cold front will continue impacting the northern waters today with seas building to 9 ft west of Guadalupe Island this morning. Winds and seas will subside through the rest of the week as the pressure gradient weakens over the region. Gulf of California: Recent scatterometer data shows fresh to locally strong SW gap winds are occurring over the northern Gulf of California north of 29.5N ahead of a weakening cold front. These winds will quickly diminish this morning as the front dissipates. Then, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf through Fri with seas generally 3 ft or less. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient over southern Mexico will result in variable, light to gentle winds across the region today through Fri. By late Fri night, fresh N winds may develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure builds over the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Scatterometer data from 0330Z showed fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue pulsing across the Gulf through Tue night. Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient will slacken by midweek with winds diminishing to fresh speeds by Wed, then becoming gentle to moderate for the rest of the week. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate N to NE breezes will persist across the Gulf of Panama this week with seas generally running 3-5 ft in mixed SW swell and N to NE wind waves. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will remain 4-6 ft in S to SW swell as light to gentle winds prevail across the southern waters. By Fri, seas will build to 5-7 ft near the Galapagos Islands as another set of SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends SE across the northern waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds south of 20N and west of 133W based on 06Z scatterometer data. A corresponding altimeter pass indicates seas are running 8-10 ft in the strongest trades with the highest seas near 140W. These conditions will generally persist today as strong high pressure remains north of the area. This high will weaken Tue through Thu in response to low pressure approaching from the west. This will result in diminishing trade winds and seas subsiding below 8 ft by midweek. A set of long period NW swell associated with a weakening cold front will continue impacting the waters north of 28N and east of 128W with seas peaking around 9 ft this morning. Seas will subside on Tue as the pressure gradient weakens and winds diminish. Elsewhere, S to SW swell will produce seas to 8 ft generally south of the Equator and west of 110W tonight through Tue night. Looking ahead, another round of SW swell will move into the far southern waters Fri and Fri night with seas once again building to 8 ft. $$ Reinhart