000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2029 UTC Sun Apr 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from low pres 1010 mb centered near 08N75W to 05N81W to 06.5N90W to 06N94W. The ITCZ continues from 06N94W to 07N110W to 04N130W to 05N120W to 04N128W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 06N103W to 10N116W to 10N124W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 90 nm either side of a line from 05N82W to 07N95W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge persists over the offshore waters west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a cold front crossing the northern Gulf of California low pressure trough over Baja California Sur supports moderate NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro with seas generally 5-7 ft. A weakening cold front is crossing the northern Gulf of California. Moderate winds are becoming fresh along the Baja California Norte coast as seas building to around 8 ft N of 28N. NW swell will continue impacting the northern waters through Mon night, then seas will subside through the mid week. Gulf of California: A cold front over the northern Gulf of California and strong high pressure west of the Baja California Peninsula is maintaining moderate SW to W gap winds north of 29.5N. These winds will become fresh to strong tonight before diminishing to moderate to fresh Mon morning then to generally light winds Mon afternoon. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf well into next week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient over the region will result in variable, light to gentle winds across the area Mon through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W through Mon night. Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. The pressure gradient will slacken Tue through Thu allowing for winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and further to light to gentle winds beginning late Wed. Gulf of Panama: Moderate N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama through Thu with seas generally running 3-5 ft in mixed SW swell and N to NE wind waves. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will persist across the region with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Wave heights currently peaking around 7 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands will subside slightly tonight into Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends SE across the northern waters from near 32N134W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the ITCZ is supporting fresh trade winds south of 20N west of 130W based on the latest available scatterometer data. Altimeter passes in this region indicate 8-9 ft seas within the trades south of the ridge and W of 130W. These conditions will generally persist through Mon night as high pressure remains anchored north of the area. The high will weaken Tue through Thu in response to low pressure approaching from the west. This will allow winds to decrease and seas to subside below 8 ft by midweek. A set of long-period NW swell associated with a weakening cold front will move into the waters N of 29N and E of 130W this evening. Seas will build to around 8 ft NW of Guadalupe Island tonight, then remain around 8 ft through Mon night. Elsewhere, S to SW swell will produce seas to 8 ft generally south of the Equator and west of 110W on Tue and Tue night. $$ CAM