000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Apr 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: North to northeast 30-40 kt 
gale force winds in the gulf are likely to increase to 35-45 kt 
tonight as the model guidance suggest a slight pressure increase 
along the slopes of southern Mexico. Seas in the gulf will build 
to 17-18 ft tonight during the peak winds. High pressure N of 
the area will slightly decrease by Sat afternoon, thus allowing 
for the gale force winds to diminish to 30 kt. However, a pulse 
of minimal gale force winds is expected Sat night before the 
pressure gradient begins to slacken as high pressure over the 
Gulf of Mexico weakens while shifting eastward. Winds over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish again below gale force early 
on Sun then become fresh to strong through late Sun morning. 
Please read the Pacific High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS 
header MIAHSFEP2 and under the WMO header FZPN03 KNHC for more 
specific marine details.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A trough extends from 06N85W to 07N90W to 07N96W to 06N102W 
where the ITCZ begins and continues along 05N120W to 05N130W to 
beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong showers 
are from 01N to 10N E of 103W, and from 0N to 07N W of 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient associated with a northwest to southeast
oriented high pressure over these waters is allowing for gentle
to moderate northwest winds to continue to the west of Baja 
California. The waveheights in these waters are in the 6-7 ft 
range and will change little through Wed.

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong southwest winds will begin 
over much of the far northern Gulf of California Sat evening, 
before diminishing on Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds will 
pulse in this region again on Sun night before diminishing early 
on Mon. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please read the Special Features section
above for details on a gale force wind gap event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at 
night, increasing to fresh to strong Sat evening as the pressure 
gradient tightens from southern Mexico to Costa Rica. Strong 
winds downstream will reach 09N and 91W on Sun morning with 
waveheights peaking to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds will continue
to pulse every night through Tue, however seas are expected to 
be below 8 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Mainly variable light to northeast moderate 
winds are expected through early next week. 

Light to moderate wind speeds will prevail elsewhere across the 
waters west of Ecuador through Sat morning. Then, light to 
gentle winds are forecast through the middle of the week with 
seas to 5 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge prevails in the region N of 14N W of 116W. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in 
the subtropics and tropics is resulting in moderate to fresh 
northeast to east trades over the area from 05N to 20N W of 
about 118W. An area of fresh to locally strong trades is 
forecast through Sun from 05N to 18N W of 131W as the high 
pressure slightly intensifies while moving southward. 
Waveheights in this area will peak to 9 ft.

$$
Ramos