000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172203 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Apr 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... Light to moderate S to SW winds will persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today through Thu night, then will shift abruptly from the N late Thu night through Fri morning, as a cold front sweeps across the SW Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected Fri morning, rapidly increasing to gale force around 1500 UTC. Gale force winds are expected to last through late Sat morning. Seas will peak to 17 ft by Fri night. Gale conditions will then subside from Sat afternoon through Sun morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 05N107W to 07N116W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 01N to 08N E of 85W, from 03N to 11N between 98W and 110W, and from 03N to 12N between 115W and 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge centered on a 1030 mb high offshore of central California dominates the regional waters, extending southeastward to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate northwesterly winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are generally running 5- 7 ft in NW swell across these waters. Little change in these conditions are expected through Friday as the high drifts westward and weakens, then is replaced by newer stronger high pressure moving into the eastern Pacific. A slight increse in the winds is expected between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro this evening due to daytime heating. Seas N of Punta Eugenia will increase briefly to 8 ft Thursday morning as a new pulse of NW swell moves into the area. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail across the Gulf, as the high pressure ridge dominates. Winds will increase modestly across central and southern portions on Thu evening, allowing seas to build to 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong W to SW gap winds, from 29.5N to 30.5N, will return on Saturday morning, and continue until Sunday night, as a weak trough develops across the far N part of the Gulf. Gulf of Tehuantepec: See the special features section for further details on a gale warning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu morning, then diminish slightly to moderate to fresh Thu night through Fri evening. Fresh to strong winds will resume Fri evening, increasing in areal coverage Sun morning with building seas to 9 ft. Pulses of fresh to strong winds at night will continue through early next week. Gulf of Panama: Fresh N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf and downstream to around 05N with seas of 3-7 ft. Winds are expected to become more light and variable Thu night through the weekend as light tradewinds develop across the southwest Caribbean. A new pulse of SW swell arriving into the regional waters tonight will maintain offshore seas at 5-7 ft. Light to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere across the waters west of Ecuador through Saturday night. Seas will remain in the range from 6-8 feet, in S to SW swell through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high centered near 36N130W, SE across the northern waters to just past the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong NE trade winds are occurring from 04N to 14N W of 128W, with seas ranging from 8 to 10 feet. This area of fresh to strong tradewinds will slowly diminish in areal coverage through Friday as the ridge to the north weakens slightly. Seas are expected to gradually subside to 6-9 ft area wide by Fri as the area of tradewinds diminishes, and current NW swell fades. $$ Ramos