000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171636 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Apr 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N83W TO 06N93W. The ITCZ continues from 06N93W TO 05.5N106W TO 07.5N114W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N TO 06N east of 83W, and from 03N to 08.5N between 86W and 106W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 10N between 116W and 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge dominates the regional waters this morning, centered on a 1027 mb high offshore of central California, extending southeastward to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh northwesterly winds across the offshore waters of Baja California this morning, which have strengthened slightly in the past several hours. Seas are generally running 5-7 ft in mixed NW swell across these waters. Little change in these conditions are expected through Friday as the high drifts westward and weakens, then is replaced by newer stronger high pressure moving into the eastern Pacific. Look for a modest increase in winds during the late this afternoon through evening hours due to daytime heating. Seas will increase slightly to 6-8 ft this evening through Thursday as a new pulse of NW swell moves into the area. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail across the Gulf this morning, as the high pressure ridge dominates. Winds will increase modestly across central portions on Thu, and expand to southern portions Thu evening, allowing seas to build to 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong W to SW gap winds, from 29.5N to 30.5N, will return on Saturday night, and continue until Sunday night, as a weak trough develops across the far N part of the Gulf. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail across the offshore waters from Las Tres Marias to Puerto Angel this morning, with seas generally 5-6 ft in mixed swell. Light to gentle S to SW winds will persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today through Thu night, then will shift abruptly from the N late Thu night through Fri morning, as a cold front sweeps across the SW Gulf of Mexico. Expect gale-force northerly winds Fri morning, lasting through Sat morning. These gale-force winds will then subside in speed and areal coverage, from Sat morning through Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu, then diminish slightly to moderate to fresh Thu night through Fri evening. Gulf of Panama: Fresh N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf and downstream to around 05N this morning and will continue today. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail inside the Gulf and are 5-7 ft downstream. Winds are expected to become more light and variable Thu night through the weekend as light tradewinds develop across the southwest Caribbean. A new pulse of SW swell arriving into the regional waters tonight will maintain offshore seas at 5-7 ft. Light to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere across the waters west of Ecuador through Saturday night. Seas will remain in the range from 6-8 feet, in S to SW swell through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high centered near 36N130W, SE across the northern waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong NE trade winds are occurring from 04N to 14N from 128W westward, with seas ranging from 8 to 11 feet. North of this tradewind belt, seas are 607 ft in NW swell. This area of fresh to strong tradewinds will slowly diminish area areal coverage through Friday as the ridge to the north weakens slightly. Seas are expected to gradually subside to 6-9 ft area wide by Fri as the area of tradewinds diminishes, and current NW swell fades. $$ Stripling