000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162134 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2031 UTC Tue Apr 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 06N89W. The ITCZ continues from 06N89W to 03N113W to 01S140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N between 110W-120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate northerly winds will continue through Thursday. Looking ahead, a cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. This will likely support gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Friday through Saturday before conditions subside on Saturday night. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will briefly pulse tonight ahead of a weakening cold front or trough. Generally moderate NW breezes will prevail over the Gulf of California after that through the end of the week with fresh winds over the central and southern Gulf Thu and Thu night. Looking ahead, another gap wind event could develop over the northern Gulf by Saturday night. Elsewhere, scatterometer data indicated moderate W winds prevail within 75 nm south of Cabo San Lucas. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with gentle winds and seas ranging from 4-7 ft. High pressure north of the region will strengthen on Wednesday with moderate to locally fresh winds developing off the Baja California coast. NW swell propagating into the waters west of the Baja peninsula will build seas to 8 ft tonight into Wednesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed. The strongest winds will occur during the overnight and early morning hours. Winds will generally diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Thursday through Saturday, then potentially become strong again by Saturday night. Gulf of Panama: Moderate winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama today, becoming fresh tonight and Wednesday as high pressure builds north of the region. Seas will build to 5-7 ft as S to SW swell mixes with NE wind waves. Looking ahead, gentle winds will prevail later in the week with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, generally light to moderate winds will prevail over the waters west of Ecuador through Saturday night. Combined seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will remain in the 6-8 ft range in S to SW swell through midweek, highest south of the Equator. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridge extends ESE across the northern waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. South of the ridge, fresh to strong trade winds are occurring from 07N-12N west of 132W. Earlier altimeter passes just east of this region indicated seas were already running in the 7-9 ft range. A surface trough will develop near 125W tonight, resulting in an enhanced pressure gradient as high pressure persists across the northern waters. This will produce an expanded area of fresh to strong trades generally west of the trough axis with seas building to 11 ft by Wednesday. Associated winds and seas will diminish by Friday as the surface trough weakens and high pressure gradually retreats westward. Elsewhere, a set of NW swell will propagate into the northern waters late tonight through Thursday with seas building to 8 ft west of Baja California Norte. $$ ERA