000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161513
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1513 UTC Tue Apr 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N90W to 03N115W to 04N125W 01N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm south of the
trough east of 88W, from 06N to 08N between 93W and 96W, and 
from 03N to 09N between 112W and 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh to
locally strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh N winds
will become light to gentle this afternoon. Then, light to 
moderate onshore winds will prevail tonight through Thu. Looking
ahead, a cold front will cross the Gulf of Mexico later in the 
week. This will likely support gale force gap winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Fri through Sat before conditions subside on Sat 
night.

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds over the
waters north of 29.5N will diminish later today, then briefly 
pulse again tonight ahead of a weakening cold front or trough. 
Generally moderate NW breezes will prevail over the Gulf of 
California Wed through Fri with fresh winds over the central and 
southern Gulf Thu and Thu night. Looking ahead, another gap wind 
event could develop over the northern Gulf Sat night.

Elsewhere, scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh W winds
were occurring overnight south of Cabo San Lucas. Otherwise, a 
weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with gentle winds
and seas ranging from 4-7 ft. High pressure north of the region 
will strengthen on Wed with moderate to locally fresh winds 
developing off the Baja California coast. NW swell propagating 
into the waters west of the Baja peninsula will build seas to 8 
ft tonight into Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse over 
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed. The strongest winds will
occur during the overnight and early morning hours. Winds will
generally diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Thu through Sat,
then potentially become strong again Sat night. 

Gulf of Panama: Moderate winds across the Gulf of Panama today
will become fresh tonight and Wed as high pressure builds north 
of the region. Seas will build to 5-7 ft as S to SW swell mixes
with NE wind waves. Looking ahead, gentle winds will prevail
later in the week with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft. 

Elsewhere, generally light to moderate winds will prevail over 
the waters west of Ecuador through Sat night. Combined seas 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will remain in the 6-8
ft range in S to SW swell through midweek, highest south of the
Equator.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge extends ESE across the northern waters 
toward the Revillagigedo Islands. South of the ridge, fresh to 
strong trade winds are likely occurring from 07N to 12N west of 
135W. Earlier altimeter passes just east of this region indicated
seas were already running in the 7-9 ft range. A surface trough 
will develop near 125W tonight, resulting in an enhanced pressure
gradient as high pressure persists across the northern waters. 
This will produce an expanded area of fresh to strong trades 
generally west of the trough axis with seas building to 11 ft by 
Wed. Associated winds and seas will diminish by Fri as the 
surface trough weakens and high pressure gradually retreats 
westward. Elsewhere, a set of NW swell will propagate into the 
northern waters late tonight through Thu with seas building to 8 
ft west of Baja California Norte.
  
$$
Reinhart