000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160916 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 548 UTC Tue Apr 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pres 1009 mb near 08N74W to 07N87W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 04N99W to 05N108W to 03N115W to 04N120W to 04N132W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 109W and 117W and from 03N to 06N between 135W and 139W. A second ITCZ reaches from 03.5S100W to 04S103W to 02.5S110W to 03.5S118W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05S to 02S between 103W and 116W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong winds will become light this afternoon. Light to moderate onshore winds will then prevail tonight through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front crossing the Gulf of Mexico later in the week could usher in another gale event for the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri through Sat. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will pulse over the waters north of 29.5N early this morning and again tonight. Light NW winds will generally prevail over the northern Gulf of California Wed through Fri. NW winds over the southern Gulf of California will be moderate during this time frame. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the area. Light to gentle winds prevail, with seas in the 6-7 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, and 4-6 ft seas prevailing over the open waters off SW Mexico. Winds will increase slightly, to gentle to moderate, by midweek as the ridge of high pressure extending ESE from N of Hawaii to near the Revillagigedo Islands strengthens and tightens the pressure gradient over the area. NW swell propagating into the forecast waters west of the Baja peninsula will build seas to 8 ft by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE to E winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed. The strongest winds will occur during the overnight and early morning hours. Strong winds could return to the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama today. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds tonight and Wed as high pressure builds north of the region. Seas will build to 5-7 ft by midweek as SW swell combines with increasing wind waves. Elsewhere, generally light to moderate winds will prevail over the waters west of Ecuador through Sat night. Combined seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will remain in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell for much of the week. Farther offshore, expect 6 to 8 ft seas SW of the Galapagos Islands through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure measuring 1025 mb centered near 30N151W ridges ESE to 31N140W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong trade winds are developing W of 125W as the pressure gradient increases in response to a surface trough expected to develop in the vicinity of 120W. Latest satellite-derived sea height data indicates corresponding seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail north of the ITCZ to 15N between 120W and 125W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow was noted north of 15N in the vicinity of the ridge axis. Latest satellite-derived sea height data indicates corresponding seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. The high pressure center will start to shift E today and arrive N of the forecast waters tonight. This will also help tighten the pressure gradient over the area. The area of fresh to strong winds W of 125W will diminish by Fri as the surface trough weakens and high pres to the N shifts back toward the W. $$ CAM