000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152039 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1913 UTC Mon Apr 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 07.5N84.5W to 06N92W. The ITCZ continues from 06N92W to 04N100W to 06N110W to 04N119W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N east of 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 104W and 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 129W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds have diminished below gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and will continue to diminish to 20 kt or less through Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front crossing the Gulf of Mexico later in the week may result in another gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri into Sat. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will develop north of 29.5N tonight into Tue. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the area. This afternoon's ASCAT pass indicated light to gentle winds prevailing, with seas in the 6-7 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, and 4-6 ft seas prevailing over the open waters off SW Mexico. Winds will increase slightly, to gentle to moderate, by midweek as the ridge of high pressure strengthens and tightens the pressure gradient over the area. NW swell propagating into the forecast waters west of the Baja peninsula will build seas to 8 ft by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed. The strongest winds will occur during the overnight and early morning hours. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night and Wed as high pressure builds north of the region. Seas will build to 5-7 ft by midweek as SW swell combines with increasing wind waves. Elsewhere, generally light to moderate winds will prevail over the waters west of Ecuador through Fri night. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will remain in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell for much of the week. Further offshore, expect 6-7 ft seas SW of the Galapagos Islands by tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1026 mb centered near 31N151W extends a ridge eastward, across the northern forecast waters. This afternoon's ASCAT pass depicted gentle to moderate trades north of the ITCZ to 15N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow was noted north of 15N. Latest altimeter data indicates seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. The high pressure center will start to shift eastward tonight, moving north of the forecast waters by Tue night. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the area, and increase winds, to fresh to strong, north of the ITCZ by Tue morning. $$ AL