000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142123 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2120 UTC Sun Apr 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region will begin this evening and last through Mon night as a ridge builds S along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico in the wake of cold front currently crossing the central Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to abruptly increase to between 35 and 40 kt by early tonight. Corresponding seas will build as high as 13 or 14 ft by early Mon. Winds and seas will diminish starting late Mon as the high pressure north of the region shifts eastward. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N75W to 07N85W to 06N100W to 06N120W. The ITCZ continues from 06N120W to 05N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 90W, from 04N to 12N between 104W and 115W, and from 04N to 09N W of 131W. A second and active ITCZ persists S of the Equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Expect moderate to locally fresh winds Tue night through Wed night across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro as the ridge strengthens some. NW swell continues to affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas to 8 ft. Seas will subside to 6 to 7 ft tonight, and will generally remain in this range over the next several days. Gulf of California: A trough will move across northern Baja California and the northern portion of the Gulf of California late Mon into Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the trough and mainly N of 30N. Farther south, a cold front currently moving across the central Gulf of Mexico will support a late season gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region tonight and Mon. Please see the Special Features section for more details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf through tonight. Then, winds will increase to a fresh to strong breeze Mon through Wed, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours. Sea heights to near 8 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Gulf of Panama: Mainly light to gentle winds are expected across the area through Tue. Then, winds will increase to a moderate to fresh breeze Tue night and Wed. Seas will generally remain in the 3 to 5 ft range through Tue, building to 5 to 7 ft Tue night into Wed due to increasing winds combined with SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will persist the next several days. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will generally remain in the 5 to 7 ft range in long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends across the northern forecast waters from high pressure centered north of the Hawaiian Islands. This system continues to gradually weaken allowing for winds to diminish across the forecast area W of 125W, including in the trade wind belt. The trade winds are forecast to increase again by Tue as the ridge builds eastward across the discussion area. NW swell continues to affect the NE waters with seas to 8 ft. This swell will decrease below 8 ft through tonight. Then, the increasing trades will help build seas to 8 to 9 ft S of 15N by Tue. Cross equatorial SW swell are decaying but will remain just high enough to maintain seas around 8 ft generally S of 02S between 103W and 115W today, and S of 02S between 112W and 120W on Mon. $$ Latto