000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141520 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 UTC Sun Apr 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region will take place tonight and Mon as a ridge builds S along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico in the wake of cold front currently crossing the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to abruptly increase to between 35 and 40 kt tonight. Corresponding seas will build as high as 13 or 14 ft by early Mon. Winds and seas will diminish starting late Mon as the high pressure north of the region shifts eastward. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 09N74W to 06N79W to 08N82W to 06N95W to 08N110W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 05N130W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 81W and 90W, from 06N to 10N between 105W and 115W, and from 05N to 07N W of 138W. A second and active ITCZ persists S of the Equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Expect moderate to locally fresh winds Tue night through Wed night across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro as the ridge strengthens some. NW swell continues to affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas to 8 ft. Seas will subside to 6 to 7 ft tonight, and will generally remain in this range over the next several days. Gulf of California: A trough will move across northern Baja California and the northern portion of the Gulf of California late Mon into Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the trough and mainly N of 30N. Farther south, a cold front currently moving across the western Gulf of Mexico will support a late season gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region Sun night and Mon. Please see the Special Features section for more details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf through tonight. Then, winds will increase to a fresh to strong breeze Mon through Wed, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours. Sea heights to near 8 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Gulf of Panama: Mainly light to gentle winds are expected across the area through Tue. Then, winds will increase to a moderate to fresh breeze Tue night and Wed. Seas will generally remain in the 3 to 5 ft range through Tue, building to 5 to 7 ft Tue night into Wed due to increasing winds combined with SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will persist the next several days. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will generally remain in the 5 to 7 ft range in long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends across the northern forecast waters from a 1030 mb high located near 32N153W. This system continues to gradually weaken allowing for winds to diminish across the forecast region. NW swell continues to affect the NE waters with seas to 8 ft. Winds and seas in the trade wind belt will continue to diminish through Mon as the high weakens further and retreats farther W. The trade winds are forecast to increase again by Tue as the ridge builds eastward across the discussion area. Cross equatorial SW swell are decaying but will remain just high enough to maintain seas around 8 ft generally S of 02S between 103W and 115W today, and S of 02S between 112W and 120W on Mon. $$ GR