000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2118 UTC Sun Apr 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 02N81W, then continues from 08N88W to 04N103W. The ITCZ begins near 04N103W and continues to 05N115W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 88W and 91W and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 121W and 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge extends southeastward across the Baja California offshore waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over inland Mexico is producing fresh northerly winds roughly north of 22N and east of 120W based on recent scatterometer data. Large, long period NW swell is producing 8-12 ft seas off Baja California Norte with 6-10 ft seas off Baja California Sur. The swell will continue producing dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast today through Mon night. This swell will gradually reach the southern Mexico offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes Tue through Wed with seas building to 5-8 ft. Looking ahead, winds are expected to strengthen to 20-25 kt over the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro Tue through Wed night as strong high pressure builds north of the region. Seas may build to 14-15 ft over the northern waters in mixed swell. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds will generally prevail across the Gulf waters through this afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient over the Gulf this evening will bring fresh NW winds to the central Gulf through Mon morning. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Tue. Fresh to strong NW winds will develop across the northern and central Gulf late Tue night through Wed night as strong high pressure builds into the region. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light to moderate winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region through Mon. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible late Mon night into Tue, but northerly winds are expected to remain well below gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon, then mainly light to gentle winds will prevail for the remainder of the forecast period. Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle breezes will prevail across the region with winds gradually becoming more southerly early this week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will continue through the week. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft beginning on Mon night as cross equatorial, long period SW swell moves into the region. This swell will persist over the southern waters through late week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1028 mb high pressure center near 30N127W is maintaining a broad ridge across the northern waters. The ridge is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds across much of the area. 18Z scatterometer data showed a broad area of 20-25 kt winds south of the high pressure center from 09N to 17N. Seas near the strongest trade winds likely range from 8-11 ft based on recent altimeter data. Similar marine conditions will persist through Mon night with NW swell mixing with NE wind waves to generate 9-11 ft seas. Large, long period NW swell generated by a low pressure system well north of the area continues to propagate across the region. The swell will cover most of the waters west of 105W by Tue with seas ranging from 8-11 ft. Looking ahead, a cold front will move SE into the NW portion of the forecast area tonight, extending from 30N134W to 27N140W by Mon afternoon. Strong high pressure building in the wake of this front will support a tightening pressure gradient across the northern waters Tue through Thu. This will result in a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds across much of the area roughly north of 18N, including the adjacent offshore waters off Baja California. Peak seas will build to 12-15 ft across this region Tue night and Wed as NW swell mixes with NE wind waves. $$ Reinhart