000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1535 UTC Sun Apr 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W TO 07N83W, then resumes from 07N91W to 04N105W. The ITCZ begins near 04N105W and continues to 03N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 123W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge, anchored by 1025 mb high pressure located near 30N127W extends southeastward across the offshore waters of Baja California to near 17N110W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure over inland Mexico will continue to produce fresh to locally strong NW winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California, particularly N of 25N E of 117W, before diminishing to 15-20 kt later this afternoon as the high weakens slightly. Seas are currently running 6-8 ft across this area. Large long period NW swell from a strong low pressure area north of the region will reach the offshore waters today and build to 10-12 ft offshore of Baja California Norte by this afternoon, and 7-9 ft off of Baja California Sur. This swell will gradually reach the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel Tue through Wed to raise seas there to 5-8 ft. This swell will produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast this afternoon through Mon night. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase again to 20 to 25 kt across the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night through Thu morning as a strong high pressure dominates the forecast area. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds will generally prevail across the Gulf waters through this afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten inside the Gulf by this evening, bringing fresh and perhaps briefly strong NW winds to central portions of the Gulf through Mon morning. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Tue. Then, winds will increase across the north and central Gulf Tue night through Wed night as strong high pressure builds into the region. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate SW to S winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region through Mon. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible Mon night, but northerly winds are expected to remain well below gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon, then mainly light to gentle winds are expected the remainder of the forecast period. Gulf of Panama: Light and variable winds, gradually becoming more southerly next week will prevail across the area. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere through early this week. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft beginning on Tue as cross equatorial long period SW swell moves into the region, and persist through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The broad ridge across the northern waters is maintaining a broad zone of fresh to strong tradewinds across much of the area. Overnight scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong trade winds from 05N to 20N W of 112W, where seas are running 7-9 ft with NW swell. Similar marine conditions will persist over the next couple of days, with increasing seas of up to 12 ft through Tue as large NW swell arrives and mixes with NE wind waves. Looking ahead, a cold front will be near 30N140W by tonight, reaching a position from 30N130W to 27N140W by Mon night and weakening. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring a noticeable increase in winds across the forecast area Tue through Thu. Latest computer model guidance indicates strong high pressure of 1040 mb becoming nearly stationary near 37N139W Wed night through Thu. The associated pressure gradient will produce a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds across most of the forecast waters roughly N of 18N, including also the waters off Baja California, mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro. Large long period NW swell generated by an intense low pressure system well north of the area continues to propagate across the NW part of the forecast region. Seas of 10 to 13 ft were noted per altimeter data N of 24N W of 135W this morning. The swell will continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters during the next few days, covering most of the waters W of 110W by Mon night, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. $$ Latto