000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Apr 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N85W TO 05N98W. The ITCZ extends from 04N103W TO 03N110W TO 04N127W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 07N between 85W and 99W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 08N between 121W and 140W. A second southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03.4S109W to beyond 02S120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm S of this ITCZ between 115W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge, anchored on 1025 mb high pressure located near 30N129W extends east and southeastward across the offshore waters of Baja California to near 15N106W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure over inland Mexico is producing fresh to locally strong NW winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California, particularly N of 25N E of 117W. Seas are running 6-7 ft across this area and expected to build to 6-8 ft by sunrise. The high will shift northeastward through Sun, and maintain the tight the pressure gradient in this area. Winds are forecast to diminish to 15-20 kt late on Sun as the high reorganizes. Large long period NW swell from a strong low pressure north of the region will reach the offshore waters later this morning and build to 10-12 ft offshore of Baja California Norte by afternoon, and 7-9 ft off of Baja California Sur. This swell will gradually reach the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel Tue through Wed to raise seas there to 5-8 ft. This swell will produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast Sun through Mon night. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase again to 20 to 25 kt across the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night through Thu morning as a strong high pressure dominates the forecast area. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds will generally prevail across the Gulf waters this morning through this afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten inside the Gulf by this evening, bringing fresh to locally strong NW winds to central portions of the Gulf through Mon morning. otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Tue. Then, winds will increase across the north and central Gulf Tue night through Wed night as strong high pressure builds into the region. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate SW to S winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region for several more days. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible early next week, but northerly winds are expected to remain well below gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon, then mainly light to gentle winds are expected the remainder of the forecast period. Gulf of Panama: Light and variable winds, gradually becoming more southerly next week will prevail across the area. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere this weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft beginning on Tue as cross equatorial long period SW swell moves into the region, and persist through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The broad ridge across the northern waters is maintaining a broad zone of fresh to strong tradewinds across much of the area. Overnight scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong trade winds from 05N to 20N W of 112W, where seas are running 7-9 ft with NW swell. Similar marine conditions will persist over the next couple of days, with increasing seas of up to 12 ft through Tue as large NW swell arrives and mixes with NE wind waves. Looking ahead, a cold front will be near 30N140W by Sun night, reaching a position from 30N130W to 27N140W by Mon night and weakening. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring a noticeable increase in winds across the forecast area Tue through Thu. Latest computer model guidance indicates strong high pressure of 1040 mb becoming nearly stationary near 39N139W Wed night through Thu. The associated pressure gradient will produce a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds, roughly N of 15N W of 120W, including also the waters off Baja California, mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro. Large long period NW swell generated by an intense low pressure system well north of the area continues to propagate across the NW part of the forecast region. Seas of 10 to 15 ft were noted per altimeter data N of 24N W of 135W late this afternoon. The swell will continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters during the next few days, covering most of the waters W of 110W by Mon night, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. $$ Stripling