000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070225 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 021 UTC Sun Apr 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N90W to 04N105W. The ITCZ continues from 04N105W to 04N120W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 123W and 135W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 85W and 92W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge, anchored on 1023 mb high pressure located near 28N130W extends eastward reaching the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over inland Mexico is producing fresh to locally strong NW winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California, particularly N of 25N E of 117W. The high will shift northeastward tonight and Sun, keeping the tight the pressure gradient in this area. Winds are forecast to diminish to 15 to 20 kt late on Sun. Seas will build to 7-9 ft late tonight. Large, long period NW swell from a strong low pressure north of the region will reach the offshore waters Sun morning. Seas will build to 10-12 ft offshore of Baja California Norte Sun afternoon, and 7-9 ft off Baja California Sur. This swell event will produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast Sun through Mon night. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase again to 20 to 25 kt across the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night through Thu morning as a strong high pressure dominates the forecast area. Gulf of California: The pressure gradient is expected to tighten Sun night, bringing fresh to locally strong NW winds to central portions of the Gulf through Mon morning. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Tue. Then, winds will increase across the north and central Gulf Tue night through Wed night as once again the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate SW to S winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region for several more days. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible early next week, but northerly winds are expected to remain well below gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon, then mainly light to gentle winds are expected the remainder of the forecast period. Gulf of Panama: Light and variable winds, gradually becoming more southerly next week will prevail across the area. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere this weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft beginning on Tue as cross equatorial long period SW swell moves into the region. These wave heights are forecast to persist through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Latest scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong trade winds from 08N to 16N W of 130W, and from 13N to 18N between 120W and 130W, while a pair of altimeter passes showed seas of 8 to 9 ft in association with these winds. Similar marine conditions will persist over the next couple of days, with increasing seas of up to 11 ft in mixed wind waves and NW swell on Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front will be near 30N140W by Sun night, reaching a position from 30N130W to 27N140W by Mon night and weakening. Strong high pressure in the wave of the front will bring a noticeable increase in winds across the forecast area Tue through Thu. Currently, marine guidance indicates a nearly stationary 1040 mb high pressure located near 38N140W, producing a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds, roughly N of 15N W of 120W, including also the waters off Baja California, mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro. Large long period NW swell associated with intense low pressure system well north of the area continues to propagate across the NW part of the forecast region. Seas of 10 to 15 ft were noted per altimeter data N of 24N W of 135W. The swell will continue to propagate E and SE across the forecast waters tonight and Sun, covering most of the waters W of 110W by Mon night, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. $$ GR