000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062102 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1929 UTC Sat Apr 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N90W to 04N104W. The ITCZ continues from 04N104W to 05N122W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 122W and 135W. Similar convection is within about 120 nm S of the trough between 85W and 88W, and near 03N96W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge, anchored on 1023 mb high pressure located near 28N130W extends eastward toward the Baja California peninsula. The gradient between the high and lower pressures over inland Mexico is producing fresh to locally strong NW winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California Sur. The high will shift northeastward tonight and Sun, and increase the pressure gradient in this area. By tonight, expect fresh to strong NW winds mainly N of 25N and E of 117W. Seas will build to 7-9 ft late tonight. Large, long period NW swell from a strong low pressure north of the region will reach the offshore waters Sun morning. Seas will build to 10-12 ft offshore of Baja California Norte Sun afternoon, and 7-9 ft off Baja California Sur. This swell event will produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast Sun through Mon night. Gulf of California: Mainly gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail this weekend. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten Sun night, bringing fresh to locally strong NW winds to central portions of the Gulf through Mon morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate SW to S winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region for several more days. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible early next week, but northerly winds are expected to remain well below gale force. The monthly distribution of the Tehuantepec gap wind events shows that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur most often in January. Gale force events have occurred as early as September and as late as May, however about 84% of all events occur between November and March. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun, then winds diminish for a few days. Gulf of Panama: Light and variable winds, gradually becoming more southerly next week will prevail across the area. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere this weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft on Mon and Mon night as long period SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Latest scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong trade winds from 08N to 16N W of 130W, and from 13N to 18N between 120W and 130W. The areal extent of enhanced trade winds should increase some on Sun as the gradient between a high to the north and lower pressures near the ITCZ tightens. Expect fresh to locally strong trades, particularly from 08N to 17N W of 125W. Looking ahead, a cold front will be near 30N140W by Sun night, reaching a position from 30N130W to 26N140W by Mon night and weakening. Strong high pressure behind the front will bring a noticeable increase in winds over the forecast area Tue. Marine guidance shows a 1039 mb high pressure situated near 37N142W, producing a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds, roughly N of 10N W of 120W. Large long period NW swell associated with intense low pressure system well north of the area is spreading across the NW waters. Wave heights have built to 10 to 15 ft NW of a line from 30N127W to 23N140W. The swell will continue to propagate E and SE across the forecast waters tonight and Sun, covering most of the waters W of 110W by early Mon with seas of 8 to 11 ft. $$ GR