000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061520 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Apr 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 02N111W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm north and 60 nm south of the axis between 122W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge, anchored on 1022 mb high pressure located near 27N137W extends eastward to the Baja peninsula. The gradient between the high and lower pressures over inland Mexico will produce fresh NW winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California today. The high will shift northeastward tonight and Sun, and increase the pressure gradient in this area. Seas will build to 6-8 ft late tonight. Large, long period NW swell from a strong low pressure north of the region will reach the offshore waters Sun morning. Seas will build to 10-12 ft offshore of Baja California Norte Sun afternoon, and 7-9 ft off Baja California Sur. This swell will produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast Sun through Mon night. Gulf of California: Mainly gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail this weekend. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten Sun night, bringing fresh to locally strong NW winds to central portions of the Gulf through Mon morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate SW to S winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region for several more days. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible early next week, but northerly winds are expected to remain well below gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun, then winds diminish for a few days. Gulf of Panama: Light and variable winds, gradually becoming more southerly next week will prevail across the area. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere this weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft on Mon and Mon night as long period SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Overnight scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh trade winds from 04N to 20N west of 115W. The areal extent of enhanced trade winds should increase this weekend as the gradient between a high to the north and lower pressures near the ITCZ tightens. Expect fresh trades, particularly from 10N to 18N W of 120W. Looking ahead, a cold front will be near 30N140W by Sun night, reaching a position from 30N130W to 26N140W by Mon night and weakening. Strong high pressure behind the front will bring a noticeable increase in winds over the forecast area Tue. Marine guidance shows a 1039 mb high pressure situated near 36N142W, producing a large area of fresh to strong winds, roughly N of 10N W of 120W. Large long period NW swell associated with s strong low pressure system north of the area is reaching the NW waters. Wave heights will build this morning, then propagate E and SE across forecast waters this weekend, encompassing the area W of 110W by early Mon with seas of 8 to 11 ft. $$ Mundell