000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Apr 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N85W TO 06N90W TO 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W TO 04.5N129W to beyond 03N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted SE of trough to 02N between 81.5W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02.5N to 06.5N between 102W and 134W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ continues from 02S99W to beyond 01S120W. Widely scattered convection is noted within 150 nm S of this ITCZ between 104W and 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge, anchored on a 1024 mb high pressure located near 26N136W extends SE into the offshore waters and dominates the regional waters N of 10N W of 105W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over inland Mexico will produce fresh NW winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California today. The high will shift eastward this afternoon and then northeastward tonight through Sun and act to increase the pressure gradient across the offshore waters of Baja to fresh to locally strong. Seas will build from 4-7 ft this morning to 6-8 ft late tonight, before large NW swell moves into the regional waters Sun morning. Large, long period NW swell generated by strong low pressure north of the region will reach the offshore waters early sun morning. Seas will build to 10-12 ft offshore of Baja California Norte Sun afternoon, and 7-9 ft offshore of Baja California Sur. This swell will produce large and dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast this weekend into early next week. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh SW to W winds expected across the northern part of the Gulf tonight will diminish this morning as a low pressure crosses the area. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail during this weekend. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten Sun evening and night and bring fresh to locally strong winds across central portions of the Gulf through Mon morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate SW to S winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region for several more days. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible early next week, but northerly winds are expected to remain well below gale force. The monthly distribution of the Tehuantepec gap wind events shows that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur most often in January. Gale force events have occurred as early as September and as late as May, however about 84% of all events occur between November and March. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun before winds diminish for a few days. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate NE winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama the remainder of tonight, then mainly light and variable winds will prevail. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere this weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft on Mon and Mon night as new long period SW swell moves into the region. A sharp upper level trough extends from the Bahamas across the Caribbean to Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica early this morning, and is producing unstable conditions across the waters of Costa Rica. An extensive area of clouds and widely scattered convection is seen southeast of the trough extending the Nicoya Peninsula, and will remain active today as the trough shifts very slowly eastward. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Overnight scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh trade winds from 04N to 20N west of 115W. The areal extent of enhanced tradewinds should increase this weekend as the gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure near the ITCZ tightens. As a result, expect fresh to occasionally strong trades, particularly from 10N to 18N W of 120W. Looking ahead, a cold front will be near 30N140W by Sun night, reaching a position from 30N130W to 26N140W by Mon night while weakening. Strong high pressure, in the wake of the front, will bring a noticeable increase in winds across the forecast area on Tue. Currently, marine guidance shows a 1039 mb high pressure situated near 36N142W, producing a large area of fresh to strong winds over the forecast waters, roughly N of 10N W of 120W. Large long period NW swell associated with intense low pressure system well north of the area is reaching the NW waters. Wave heights will build to 10 to 15 ft NW of a line from 30N134W to 27N140W by Sat morning. The swell will continue to propagate E and SE across the forecast waters this weekend, covering most of the waters W of 110W by early Mon with seas of 8 to 11 ft. $$ Stripling