000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060217 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 UTC Sat Apr 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 06N90W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 03N110W to 04N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-05N between 84W- 89W. Similar convection is from 03N-06N between 121W-130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge, anchored on a 1022 mb high pressure located near 26N137W dominates the waters N of 15N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over inland Mexico will bring some increase in winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California beginning tonight. The most recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh NW winds just W of Baja California Sur. By Sat night into Sun, expect fresh to strong NW winds off the coast of Baja California Norte as the high pressure strengthens and shifts eastward. Large, long period NW swell generated by strong low pressure north of the region will reach the offshore waters this weekend. Wave heights will build to 11 or 12 ft west of Baja California on Sun, with associated swell reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sun night into Mon morning. This swell event will produce large and dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast this weekend into early next week. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are expected across the northern part of the Gulf tonight as a low pressure crosses the area. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail during this weekend. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region for several more days. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible early next week, but northerly winds are expected to remain well below gale force. The monthly distribution of the Tehuantepec gap wind events shows that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur most often in January. Gale force events have occurred as early as September and as late as May, however about 84% of all events occur between November and March. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds are expected near the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate NE winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama tonight, then mainly light and variable winds will prevail. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere this weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft on Mon and Mon night as new long period SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Latest scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh trade winds from 06N to 18N west of 120W. The extent of enhanced trade winds should increase this weekend as the gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure near the ITCZ tightens. As a result, expect fresh to occasionally strong trades, particularly from 10N to 18N W of 120W. Looking ahead, a cold front will be near 30N140W by Sun night, reaching a position from 30N130W to 26N140W by Mon night while weakening. Strong high pressure, in the wake of the front, will bring a noticeable increase in winds across the forecast area on Tue. Currently, marine guidance shows a 1039 mb high pressure situated near 36N142W, producing a large area of fresh to strong winds over the forecast waters, roughly N of 10N W of 120W. Large long period NW swell associated with intense low pressure system well north of the area is reaching the NW waters. Wave heights will build to 10 to 15 ft NW of a line from 30N134W to 27N140W by Sat morning. The swell will continue to propagate E and SE across the forecast waters this weekend, covering most of the waters W of 110W by early Mon with seas of 8 to 11 ft. $$ GR