000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052108 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1912 UTC Fri Apr 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 07N92W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 03N110W to 05N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N- 09N between 82W-86W, and from 02N-05N between 85W-90W. Similar convection is from 07N-09N between 129W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends west of the Baja California peninsula from 30N117W to 25N121W while another trough is analyzed along the length of the Gulf of California. This pattern supports light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California, and the offshore waters W of Baja California norte, with moderate to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters west of Baja California Sur. Winds are expected to increase west of Baja California tonight as an area of high pressure builds eastward. By Sat night and Sun, expect fresh to strong NW winds off the coast of Baja California Norte as the high strengthens and shifts eastward. Large, long period NW swell generated by strong low pressure north of the region will reach the offshore waters this weekend. Wave heights will build to 11 or 12 ft west of Baja California on Sun with associated swell reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sun night into Mon morning. This swell event will produce large and dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast this weekend into early next week. Gulf of California: NW winds will remain mostly light to gentle through Monday. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate SW winds are expected across the region for several more days. The next offshore gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible early next week, but northerly winds are expected to remain below gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds are expected near the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate NE winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama tonight, then mainly light and variable winds will prevail. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere this weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft on Mon and Mon night as new long period SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh trade winds were noted in scatterometer data from 06N to 18N west of 120W. The extent of enhanced trade winds should increase slightly tonight, as the gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure near the ITCZ tightens. Large long period NW swell associated with intense low pressure system well north of the area will propagate into the northwest waters today. Wave heights will build to 10-15 ft NW of a line from 30N130W to 24N140W by Sat morning. The swell will continue to propagate E and SE across the forecast waters this weekend, covering most of the waters W of 110W by early Mon. $$ GR