000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051505 RRA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 09N86W to 07N92W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N92W to 03N102W TO 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are evident 
from 05N-09N between 83W-86W, and from 02N-05N between 86W-98W. 
Scattered moderate rain showers are from 05N to 08N between 126W 
and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A surface trough extends west of the Baja peninsula from 30N120W 
to 25N125W. A weaker surface trough is analyzed along the length 
of the peninsula from 32N114W to 27N113W to 22N109W. The pattern 
supports light to gentle winds over most of the Mexican waters 
north of 15N, as seen from recent scatterometer data. Winds are 
expected to increase west of Baja California tonight as an area 
of high pressure builds eastward. By Sat night and Sun, expect 
fresh to strong NW winds off the coast of Baja California Norte 
as the high strengthens and shifts eastward.

Large, long period NW swell generated by a strong low pressure 
system north of the region will reach the offshore waters this 
weekend. Waves will build to 11-12 ft west of Baja California 
Sun, and reach the Baja peninsula Sun night and Mon. This swell 
event will produce large and dangerous surf conditions along the 
Baja California coast into early next week.

Gulf of California: NW winds will remain mostly light to gentle 
through Monday. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate SW winds are expected 
across the region for several more days. The next offshore gap 
wind event in Tehuantepec region is possible early next week, 
but northerly winds are expected to remain below gale force.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds are expected near the Gulf 
of Papagayo through Sun.

Gulf of Panama: Light S to SW winds are expected to prevail 
across the region through Mon. 

Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere this weekend.
Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will 
build to 5-7 ft on Mon and Mon night as new long period SW swell 
moves into the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds were noted in scatterometer data 
from 04N to 19N west of 120W. The extent of enhanced trade winds 
should increase slightly tonight, as the gradient between high 
pressure to the N and lower pressure near the ITCZ tightens.

Large long period NW swell associated with intense low pressure 
system well north of the area will propagate into the northwest 
waters today. Wave heights will build to 10-16 ft NW of a line 
from 30N128W TO 23N140W by Sat morning. The swell will continue 
to propagate e to SE across the forecast waters this weekend, 
covering most of the waters W of 110W by early Mon.
  
$$
Mundell