000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Apr 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N85W to 06N93W. The ITCZ continues from 06N93W to 03N108W TO 04N133W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 03N-10N between 82W and 88.5W, and within 75 nm S of the ITCZ between 93W and 98W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ extends across the area from 01.5S103W TO 01.5S113W to beyond 02S120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm S of this ITCZ between 103W and 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered west of Baja California near 25N119W. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California. Recent scatterometer data showed the strong winds of 15-20 kt located due east of the high between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. A weak low pressure system tracking eastward along 31N will move inland across Baja California Norte late this afternoon, and bring gentle W to SW winds to the northern waters. Then during the evening and overnight hours, winds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 kt off Baja California as high pressure west of the region builds eastward. By Sat night into Sun, expect fresh to strong NW winds off the coast of Baja California Norte as the high shifts eastward and closer to the peninsula. Large, long period NW swell generated by strong low pressure north of the region will reach the offshore waters this weekend. Wave heights will build to 11 or 12 ft west of Baja California on Sun with associated swell reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sun night into Mon morning. This swell event will produce large and dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast this weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate westerly winds will generally prevail across the offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel through the weekend. Gulf of California: A meandering trough over Baja California will support fresh to locally strong SW to W winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight into early Fri. Otherwise, winds will remain 20 kt or less through the period. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate SW winds are expected across the Gulf for the several days, becoming southerly during the afternoon. The next offshore gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected early next week. Currently, marine guidance suggests these northerly winds will remain below gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Fri night and early Sat morning. Then, expect moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf through the weekend. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama through tonight, then diminish to gentle speeds by Fri night and persist through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere through the weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft on Mon and Mon night as new long period SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1015 mb low pressure is located near 31N122W with a weakening cold front extending southwest from the low to near 24N130W. Latest scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate NW winds in the wake of the front, with seas to 8 ft N of 26N W of the front to 125W. The low pressure and associated cold front will move eastward across the NE waters waters over the next 12- 24 hours while weakening. Further south, moderate to locally fresh trade winds were noted in scatterometer data from 04N to 19N west of 120W. The aerial extend of the trade winds is forecast to increase some by Fri night, as the pressure gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ tightens. New large, long period NW swell associated with deep low pressure well north of the region will propagate into the northwest waters today. Wave heights will build to 10-15 ft NW of a line from 30N134W TO 27N140W by early Sat morning. This swell event will continue to propagate across the forecast region during the upcoming weekend, covering most of the waters W of 110W by early Mon. $$ Stripling