296 AXPZ20 KNHC 050217 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 UTC Fri Apr 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N83W to 06N92W. The ITCZ continues from 06N92W to 04N110W to 05N125W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N-08N between 83W-90W. Similar convection is also noted from 07N-09N between 118W-127W. As it normal for this time of the year, a second an active ITCZ remains S of the Equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered west of Baja California near 25N120W. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California. A weak low pressure system tracking eastward along 31N will bring moderate winds to the NE waters tonight before dissipating early Fri. Then, winds will begin to increase to 15 to 20 kt off Baja California on Fri as high pressure builds west of the region. By Sat night into Sun, expect fresh to strong NW winds off the coast of Baja California Norte with an enhanced offshore pressure gradient. Large, long period NW swell generated by strong low pressure north of the region will reach the offshore waters this weekend. Wave heights will build to 11 or 12 ft west of Baja California on Sun with associated swell reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sun night into Mon morning. This swell event will likely produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast this weekend into early next week. Gulf of California: A meandering trough over Baja California will support fresh to locally strong SW to W winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight into early Fri. Otherwise, winds will remain 20 kt or less through the period. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected early next week. Currently, marine guidance suggests northerly winds below gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Fri. Then, expect moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf through the weekend. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama through tonight, then diminish to gentle speeds by Fri night and persist through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere through the weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft on Mon and Mon night as a set of long period SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1014 mb low pressure is located near 31N124W with a weakening cold front extending southwest from the low to near 22N137W. Latest scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate NW winds in the wake of the front, with seas to 9 ft N of 26N W of 136W. The low pressure and associated cold front will move eastward across the NE waters waters over the next 12-24 hours while weakening. Further south, moderate to locally fresh trade winds were noted in scatterometer data from 07N to 15N west of 130W. The aerial extend of the trade winds is forecast to increase some by Fri night, as the pressure gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ tightens. A set of large and long period NW swell associated with deep low pressure well north of the region will propagate into the northwest waters as early as Fri. Wave heights will build to 10-15 ft NW of a line from 30N134W TO 27N140W by early Sat morning. This swell event will continue to propagate across the forecast region during the upcoming weekend, covering most of the waters W of 110W by early Mon. $$ GR