000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Apr 04 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough passes through the coastal sections of Colombia near 06N77W, continuing to 05N81W, 06N87W, and 06N91W. The ITCZ continues from 06N91W to 03N106W, 04N124W, and 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 210 NM N of the trough between 83W AND 87W...within 180 NM S of the trough between 86W AND 88W...and within 270 NM N of the ITCZ between 120W and 125W. A cold front passes through 30N130W to 24N135W to 22N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 150 NM to 360 NM E of the cold front N of 27N. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high pressure center is about 360 nm to the west of the coast of Baja California along 29N. Light to gentle winds cover the offshore waters. It is possible that locally moderate NW breezes may be likely within 150 nm to the south of the southernmost part of Baja California, and locally moderate NE breezes may be within 300 nm to the west of Baja California along 24N/25N. Areas of light smoke have been showing up in satellite imagery, off the southern coast of Mexico, during the last 24 hours or so. A low pressure center is associated with the current Eastern Pacific Ocean cold front. The low center will move eastward during the next day or so, roughly along 30N/31N. Expect moderate-to-fresh breezes within 450 nm to the west of the front, and within 210 nm to the east of the front at the start of the forecast period. Expect only moderate breezes within 120 nm on either side of the front from 27N northward during the front's eastward movement. Expect moderate-to-fresh NW winds during the next 2 to 3 days off the coast of Baja California. The wind speeds will increase to fresh-to-strong on Saturday afternoon, N of 28N at first, and then expand in coverage to N of 25N by Saturday night. The swell reaching at least 8 feet arrives at the coast on Sunday morning. Large and long period NW swell, generated by strong low pressure north of the area, will reach the offshore waters during this weekend in general. The wave heights of 12 feet will be about 330 nm to the west of Baja California, N of 29N, on Sunday morning, eventually curving northeastward and out of the forecast area. It is likely that this swell may produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast from this weekend into the early part of the next week. Gulf of California: for tonight/Thursday night: Expect fresh-to- strong SW breezes, and eventually strong-to-near gale force winds, N of 29.5N, in the northern Gulf of California. The wind speeds will slow down to light and variable during the mid- morning hours of Friday. Fresh SW breezes will return to the same area, N of 29.5N, on Friday night, ending by Saturday morning. The wind speeds elsewhere will remain at 20 knots or less, during the rest of the forecast period. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light to gentle winds will cover the area until Monday night. Fresh-to-strong N gap winds are forecast to return on Tuesday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Areas of light smoke have been observed off the coast of in satellite imagery, off the coast of Central America, during the last 24 hours or so. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo, during the next two days. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will cover the Gulf of Panama through tonight, then diminish to gentle speeds by Friday night, and persist through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere through the weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5 feet to 7 feet, on Monday and Monday night, as a set of long period SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 31N129W, to 24N135W to 22N140W. The most recent scatterometer data were showing fresh NW winds N of 28N W of 136W. The sea heights are near 8 feet in the NW corner of the forecast area. The cold front will continue to move eastward and weaken during the next 24 hours. Moderate trade winds were being observed in scatterometer data from 07N to 15N west of 130W. A large set of NW swell, associated with deep low pressure well north of the forecast area, will propagate into the northwest waters as early as Friday moring, at 8 feet. The wave heights will build to 12 feet to 15 feet by Friday night, in the NW corner of the forecast area. This swell will continue moving across the high seas area through the weekend. It will mix with southern hemisphere swell, in order to produce sea heights 8 feet or greater across much of the area north of 04N and west of 110W by Monday. $$ MT