000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0925 UTC Thu Apr 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 07N78W to 06N92W. The ITCZ continues from 06N92W to 03N105W to 05N125W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 86W and 89W and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 116W and 119W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure is centered west of Baja California near 27N123W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the central offshore waters based on limited overnight scatterometer data. Locally moderate NW breezes are likely occurring west of Baja California. Areas of light smoke were noted off the southern coast of Mexico in earlier satellite imagery. A weak low pressure system tracking eastward along 30N will bring moderate winds to the northern waters tonight before dissipating early Fri. Elsewhere, winds will strengthen to fresh speeds off Baja California Sur tonight and again on Fri night as high pressure builds west of the region. By Sat, expect fresh to strong NW breezes off the coast of Baja California Norte with an enhanced offshore pressure gradient. Large, long period NW swell generated by strong low pressure north of the region will reach the offshore waters this weekend. Wave heights will build to 12 ft west of Baja California on Sun with associated swell reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun night. This swell will likely produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast this weekend into early next week. Gulf of California: North of 29N, SW to W gap winds over the northern Gulf of California will become strong to possibly near gale force tonight into early Fri. Otherwise, winds will remain 20 kt or less through the period. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon. Northerly gap winds may begin strengthening to fresh speeds late Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Areas of light smoke were noted off the coast of central America in earlier satellite imagery. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Then, expect moderate to fresh breezes to pulse over the Gulf through the weekend. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama through tonight, then diminish to gentle speeds by Fri night and persist through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere through the weekend. Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will build to 5-7 ft on Mon and Mon night as a set of long period SW swell moves into the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1015 mb low pressure is located near 30N132W with a cold front extending southwest from the low to near 23N140W. Behind this low, a weakening cold front extends from 30N137W to 26N140W. Recent satellite-derived wind data showed fresh NW winds poleward of the weakening cold front with seas likely to 8 ft in NW swell over the far NW portion. The first cold front, along with the previously described low, will move eastward across the northern waters over the next 24 hours while weakening. Further south, moderate trade winds were noted in scatterometer data from 07N to 15N west of 130W. A large set of NW swell associated with deep low pressure well north of the region will propagate into the northwest waters as early as Fri. Wave heights will build to 10-15 ft north of 27N and west of 135W by Sat morning. This swell will continue moving across the high seas through the weekend and mix with southern hemisphere swell to produce seas 8 ft or greater across much of the area north of 04N and west of 110W by Mon. $$ Reinhart