000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040257 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Apr 04 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N84W to 06N91W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N101W to 04N116W to 05N128W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 84W and 88W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front extends from the southwestern U.S. to across Baja California Norte and to near 26N122W. Latest scatterometer data and a few ship observations show gentle northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja California. Scatterometer data revealed gentle north to northeast winds elsewhere over the waters west of Mexico. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Sur beginning Thu night and to fresh to locally strong Fri night. Winds elsewhere over these waters will increase to mainly fresh speeds late Fri night into Sat as high pressure well west of the area ridges eastward toward the Baja California Peninsula. Areas of haze were noted in last visible imagery and in observations along much of the coast of Central America extending to the offshore waters. Long-period northwest swell, that is forecast to be generated by an area of strong low pressure well to the north of the discussion area, will reach the offshore waters this upcoming weekend. The associated wave heights will build to a peak heights of around 11 ft west of Baja California on Sun. It is likely that this swell may produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast beginning Sat night and into the early part of the next week. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are over the Gulf. Winds will become strong southwest winds over the far northern part of the Gulf beginning on Thu evening, possibly reach to near gale force late Thu night into early on Fri and become light and variable on Fri afternoon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Little change to the present conditions of variable light to moderate winds is expected through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast to east winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will increase to near gale force late tonight, diminish to strong winds by early Thu afternoon and to fresh winds by Thu evening, then pulse back up to strong speeds Thu night and diminish to fresh winds Fri afternoon. These winds may briefly pulse to strong speeds late Fri night. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight and diminish to mainly fresh speeds early Thu and change little through Fri, then become variable at gentle to moderate speeds Sat. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. The wave heights generally will range from 4 to 6 ft due to a mixed northwest and southwest swell. Areas of haze were noted in last visible imagery and in observations along much of the coast of Central America extending to the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is dissipating from Baja California Norte to 27N118W and to 26N122W. High pressure of 1018 mb is near 28N124W, with a ridge extending southeastward to near 20N109W. A weak 1015 mb low is near 30N134W, with a trough extending to 26N134W and to near 24N139W. Over the far northwest part of the area, a cold front extends from near 32N126W to 26N140W. Behind this front winds are less than 20 kt, but wave heights are up to 8 ft in a northwest swell north of about 28N. This front will weaken over the next 24 hours as it moves across the north-central waters and dissipate by early Fri. Yet another cold front is forecast to be just northwest of the area by early Fri, but is expected to stay north of the area through Fri night. A large set of northwest swell following in behind this front will propagate into the northwest waters by early on Fri, with peak wave heights reaching to around 9 ft. As this swell continues to progress further into the northwest part of the area, seas will eventually grow to around 14 ft near 30N140W by Sat. The leading edge of this set of swell marked by seas starting at 8 ft is forecast to reach a line from near 32N123W to 25N131W to 10N140W by late Sat afternoon. $$ Aguirre