000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Apr 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N84W to 06N91W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N100W to 03N110W to 04N122W to 05N130W and to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 84W and 88W, and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 118W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 133W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends from the southwestern U.S. to across Baja California Norte and to near 26N122W. Latest scatterometer data and a few ship observations show gentle northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja California. Scatterometer data revealed gentle north to northeast winds elsewhere over the waters west of Mexico. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Sur beginning Thu night and to fresh to locally strong Fri night. Winds elsewhere over these waters will increase to mainly fresh speeds late Fri night into Sat as high pressure well west of the area ridges eastward toward the Baja California Peninsula. Long-period northwest swell, that is forecast to be generated by an area of strong low pressure well to the north of the forecast area, will reach the offshore waters this upcoming weekend. The associated wave heights will build to a peak heights of around 11 ft west of Baja California on Sun. It is likely that this swell may produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast beginning Sat night and into the early part of the next week. Gulf of California: The earlier noted fresh to strong southwest winds in the far northern part of the Gulf have diminished to mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds during the day. Strong southwest winds are again expected over the far northern part of the Gulf beginning on Thu evening, possibly reach to near gale force late Thu night into early on Fri and become light and variable on Fri afternoon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Little change to the present conditions of variable light to moderate winds is expected through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh-to-strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will prevail through Friday, then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds during the weekend. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight and diminish to mainly fresh speeds early Thu and change little through Fri, then become variable at gentle to moderate speeds Sat. Light to gentle winds will continue elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. The wave heights generally will range from 4 to 6 ft due to a mixed northwest and southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 18Z surface analysis has a weakening cold front extending from Baja California Norte to 27N118W and to 26N122W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front to near 23N131W. High pressure of 1021 mb is near 27N124W. A weak 1016 mb low is near 29N136W, with a trough to 26N139W. A second cold front currently is just to the northwest of the forecast area. This front will move across the northern waters through Fri, with associated northwest swell building seas to around 14 ft near 30N140W by Sat, and while the leading edge of the swell marked by seas starting at 8 ft reaches a line from near 32N128W to 22N140W by that same time. $$ Aguirre