000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Apr 03 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough passes through the coastal sections of Colombia near 06N77W to 06N91W. The ITCZ continues from 06N91W to 03N104W to 04N120W to 04N128W beyond 02N140W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 03N to 05N between 84W and 86W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to the south of the surface trough between 86W and 88W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 360 nm to the south of the surface trough between 81W and 90W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 122W and 127W, and within 210 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 133W and 136W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 115W westward. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends across Baja California Norte and the northernmost offshore waters. The latest satellite-derived winds and available ship observations were showing gentle NW winds in the waters that are to the west of Baja California. Scatterometer data from 17N southward were indicating moderate- to-fresh breezes. The forecast: gentle-to-moderate winds will prevail in this region through Saturday afternoon. Strong breezes are expected off Baja California Norte on Saturday night, from 26N northward within 90 nm of the coast. The increase in the wind speeds will be in response to high pressure building to the west of the region. Long period NW swell, that is forecast to be generated by an area of strong low pressure well to the north of the forecast area, will reach the offshore waters this weekend. The sea heights will build to 9 feet to 11 feet west of Baja California Norte by Saturday night and Sunday morning. It is likely that this swell may produce dangerous surf conditions along the Baja California coast, from Saturday night/Sunday morning, into the early part of the next week. Gulf of California: The latest scatterometer winds were showing fresh-to-strong SW winds in the Gulf of California from 29.5N northward. The global models had been giving a forecast of such winds during the last few days. The wind speeds are forecast to slow down, with time, during the rest of the day today. The same SW wind conditions are forecast to start on Thursday night, from 29.5N northward, and continue until at least Friday morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly gap winds will continue to diminish today, as high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward. Light to gentle winds are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh-to-strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will prevail through Friday, then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds during the weekend. Gulf of Panama: Fresh winds are forecast to be in the Gulf of Panama tonight only. The wind speeds will subside to gentle on Thursday night. Expect generally light to gentle winds to persist from Friday through Sunday night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere during the weekend. The wave heights generally will range from 3 feet to 6 feet in mixed NW and SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Satellite-derived wind data from around 0530Z showed an area of moderate to fresh trade winds roughly from 05N to 10N west of 130W. Altimeter data depicted a swath of 8-10 ft combined seas in this region near active convection along the ITCZ. Seas will gradually subside through tonight, as high pressure weakens over the northern waters. A weak cold front extends from 32N117W to 26N125W to 25N130W. This boundary will continue weakening as it traverses the northern portion of the forecast area through today. A second cold front currently is just to the west of the forecast area. The second front will move across the NW waters later today through Thursday. with associated NW swell building seas to 8 ft near 30N140W. An intense low pressure center will track well north of the forecast area by late week. Very large, long period NW swell associated with this system will propagate SE across the region Fri night through Sunday night. Wave heights will build to 10-14 ft over the NW portion by Sat morning. A widespread area of seas greater than 8 ft will cover most of the discussion area north of 02N and west of 110W by Mon. $$ mt