000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030912
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0912 UTC Wed Apr 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 05N91W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N91W to 03N110W to 05N120W to 05N135W to beyond 03N140W.  
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 03N to 06N between 86W and 89W and within 90 nm north of 
the ITCZ between 123W and 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A weak cold front extends across Baja California Norte and the 
far northern offshore waters. Recent satellite-derived winds and
available ship observations showed gentle NW winds over the waters
west of Baja California. Further south, scatterometer data 
indicated moderate to fresh breezes were occurring south of Cabo 
San Lucas. Light to moderate winds will generally prevail in this
region through Thu. Winds will strengthen Fri through Sat in 
response to high pressure building west of the region. Strong 
breezes are expected off Baja California Norte on Sat night.

Long period NW swell generated by strong low pressure well north
of the forecast area will reach the offshore waters this weekend.
Seas will build to 9-11 ft west of Baja California Norte by Sun.
This swell will likely produce dangerous surf conditions along 
the Baja California coast into early next week.

Gulf of California: Recent scatterometer data depicted strong SW
gap winds over the northern Gulf of California ahead of an 
approaching cold front. Fresh to locally strong SW breezes will 
develop north of 29.5N each evening through Thu night as gap 
winds funnel through low terrain to the west of the northern 
Gulf.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly gap winds will rapidly 
diminish today as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico shifts 
eastward. Light to gentle winds are expected over this area for 
the remainder of the forecast period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will
prevail through Fri, then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds 
over the weekend.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama will subside
to gentle Thu night. Expect generally light to gentle winds to
persist over the area Fri through Sun night.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail through the weekend.
Wave heights will generally range from 3-6 ft in mixed NW and SW
swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Satellite-derived wind data from around 0530Z showed an area of 
moderate to fresh trade winds roughly from 05N to 10N west of 
130W. Altimeter data depicted a swath of 8-10 ft combined seas in
this region near active convection along the ITCZ. Seas will 
gradually subside through Wed night as high pressure weakens over
the northern waters. Elsewhere, a weak cold front extends from 
32N117W to 26N125W to 25N130W. This boundary will continue 
weakening as it traverses the northern portion of the forecast 
area through today.

Another cold front will move across the northern waters later
today through Thu with associated NW swell building seas to 8 ft
near 30N140W. An intense low pressure center will track well 
north of the forecast area by late week. Very large, long period
NW swell associated with this system will propagate SE across 
the region Fri night through Sun night. Wave heights will build
to 10-14 ft over the NW portion by Sat morning. A widespread area
of seas greater than 8 ft will cover most of the discussion area
north of 02N and west of 110W by Mon.

$$
Reinhart