000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030143 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 024 UTC Wed Apr 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N84W to 05N87W to 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 05N91W to 05N95W to 02N108W to 05N130W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 07N between 85W and 89W and within 60 nm of a line from 05N122W to 06N130W to 03.5N140W. A second ITCZ reaches from 02S103W to 05S114W to beyond 03.4S120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen S of 03S between 115W and 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Satellite-derived wind data from around 18Z depicts light to gentle NW winds over the offshore waters W of Baja California. Light to gentle winds will generally prevail in this area through Thu, then winds will increase to moderate in this area Fri and Sat in response to deeper low pressure over interior Mexico. Strong breezes are forecast for this area by Sat as high pres centered near 30N130W strengthens. Long period swell generated by gales well to the NW of the discussion area will cause seas near 30N140W to build to around 15 ft Sat morning. The swell will cause seas to build to between 9 and 12 feet W of Baja California Norte by Sun evening. These swell will be capable of producing dangerous surf along the Baja coast Sun and Mon. Gulf of California: Fresh to locally strong SW breezes will develop over the Gulf near 30N each afternoon through Fri as gap winds funnel E through low terrain just to the W. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong winds will continue until Wed morning, then high pres over the Gulf of Mexico will shift E and allow the gap winds to subside. Light to gentle winds are anticipated for this area for the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will subside to strong Wed, then to Fresh Fri. Gulf of Panama: Fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama will subside to light Thu. Expect generally light to gentle winds over the area Thu night through Sun night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. The wave heights generally will range from 3 feet to 6 feet in mixed NW and SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Satellite-derived wind data from around 18Z showed an area of moderate to fresh trade winds roughly from 05N to 13N west of 115W. Satellite-derived sea height data indicate combined seas in the trade-wind belt W of 120W are subsiding. Accordingly, the area of 8 ft seas in this region has retreated westward to W of 138W. Trade winds and seas in this area will continue subsiding through midweek, as high pressure weakens over the northern waters. A weak cold front curves SW from 30N121W then W to 25N133W, then continues NW as stationary front to 28N140W. This boundary will continue weaken as it traverses across the NE part of the forecast area through Wed. A new cold front will move across the northern waters from Wednesday through Thursday. The associated NW swell will cause seas in the far NW corner of the area to build slightly to between 6 and 8 ft Thu and Fri. An intense low pressure center will track well north of the forecast area by late week. Very large, long period NW swell associated with this system will propagate SE across the region Sat through Sun night. Sea heights will build to between 10 feet and 15 feet in the NW part of the area on Sat. A widespread area of seas greater than 8 feet will end up covering almost all of the discussion area N of 01N and W of 110W by Mon afternoon. $$ CAM