000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2023 UTC Tue Apr 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N85W to 05N87W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 01N107W to 05N129W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 60 nm of a line from 07N83W to 03N88W and within 60 nm of the ITCZ W of 128W. A second ITCZ reaches from 03S99W to 02S103W to beyond 03.4S109W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen S of 03S between 105W and 112W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Satellite-derived wind data from around 18Z depicts light to gentle NW winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds generally will generally prevail in this area through Thursday, then winds will increase to moderate in this area Fri and Sat in response to deeper low pressure over interior Mexico. Strong breezes are forecast for this area by Sat as high pres centered near 30N130W strengthens. Long period swell generated by gales well to the NW of the discussion area will cause seas near 30N140W to build to around 15 ft Sat morning. The swell will cause seas to build to between 9 and 12 feet W of Baja California Norte by Sun evening. These swell will be capable of producing dangerous surf along the Baja coast Sun and Mon. Gulf of California: Fresh to locally strong SW breezes will develop over the Gulf near 30N each afternoon through Fri as gap winds funnel E through low terrain just to the W. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong winds will continue until Wednesday morning, then high pres over the Gulf of Mexico will shift E and allow the gap winds to subside. Light to gentle winds are anticipated for this area for the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE winds will cover the area from now until tonight. Strong NE winds will pulse through the area, starting tonight and continuing until Wednesday afternoon. Similar wind conditions will start on Wednesday night, and they will continue Thursday around noon. Moderate-to-fresh winds will cover the area during the rest of the forecast period. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds will persist in the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Expect generally light to gentle winds over the region Thu night through Sat night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. The wave heights generally will range from 3 feet to 6 feet in mixed NW and SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Satellite-derived wind data from around 18Z showed an area of moderate to fresh trade winds roughly from 05N to 13N west of 115W. Sea heights in this region are subsiding, based on the corresponding altimeter data. The area of 8 ft seas in this region has retreated westward to W of 134W. Trade winds and seas in this area will continue subsiding through midweek, as high pressure weakens over the northern waters. A weak cold front extends SW from 30N122W to 26N131W, then continues as stationary front to 28N140W. This front will continue weaken as it traverses across the NE part of the forecast area through Wed. A new cold front will move across the northern waters from Wednesday through Thursday. The associated NW swell will cause seas in the far NW corner of the area to build slightly to between 6 and 8 ft Thu and Fri. An intense low pressure center will track well north of the forecast area by late week. Very large, long period NW swell associated with this system will propagate SE across the region Sat through Sun night. Sea heights will build to between 10 feet and 15 feet in the NW part of the area on Sat. A widespread area of seas greater than 8 feet will end up covering almost all of the discussion area N of 01N and W of 110W by Mon afternoon. $$ CAM