000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Apr 02 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coastal sections of Colombia to 07N77W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 04N103W to 06N116W to 05N125W to 02N134W beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 210 nm to the SE of the surface trough between 84W and 87W, and within 150 nm to the N of the ITCZ from 115W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 92W and 100W. A surface trough is along 12N105W 10N109W 07N112W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 90 nm to the east of the trough from 10N to 11N. A second ITCZ is along 02.5S91W 01S97W beyond 03.4S105W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 01S southward between 100W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data show gentle-to-moderate NW winds in the offshore waters west of Baja California from 24N northward. Light-to-gentle winds generally will cover the area from 20N northward from 120W eastward, from now until Thursday. Moderate breezes are forecast for Thursday, from 24N to 28N only, within 120 nm of the coast of Baja California. Moderate-to-fresh breezes will grow in areal coverage on Friday, from 26N northward within 120 nm of the coast, and within 360 nm to 420 nm of the coast of Baja California from 20N to 26N. Strong breezes are forecast for Saturday night, from 28N northward within 120 nm of the coast. Swell of 8 feet or greater will reach within 60 nm of the coast from 26N northward on Sunday morning. Gulf of California: Strong SW breezes will develop from 29N to 31N from 114W westward, later this afternoon, and they will continue until Wednesday morning. The same conditions will develop again on Thursday night, lasting only for 6 hours or so. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong-to-near gale-force winds will last from this morning until later this afternoon. Strong winds will start again tonight and continue until Wednesday morning. Light- to-gentle winds will cover the area for the rest of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE winds will cover the area from now until tonight. Strong NE winds will pulse through the area, starting tonight and continuing until Wednesday afternoon. Similar wind conditions will start on Wednesday night, and they will continue Thursday around noon. Moderate-to-fresh winds will cover the area during the rest of the forecast period. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds will persist in the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Expect generally light to gentle winds over the region Thu night through Sat night. Light-to-gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. The wave heights generally will range from 3 feet to 6 feet in mixed NW and SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Recent scatterometer data were showing an area of moderate to fresh trade winds roughly from 05N to 13N west of 135W. The sea heights were ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in this region, based on the corresponding altimeter data. The trade winds will diminish and the sea heights will subside through midweek, as high pressure weakens in the northern waters. A cold front passes through 30N125W to 28N130W to 27N135W. A stationary front continues from 27N135W to 28N140W. This front will weaken gradually, as it moves across the northern part of the forecast area through early Wednesday. A second cold front will move across the northern waters from Wednesday through Thursday. The associated NW swell will be building seas to 8 feet across the far NW corner of the area. An intense low pressure center will track well north of the forecast area by late week. Very large, long period NW swell associated with this system will propagate southeastward across the region from Friday through Saturday night. The sea heights will build to a range from 10 feet to 17 feet in the NW part of the area by Saturday. A widespread area of seas greater than 8 feet will end up covering the area that is from 06N northward from 120W westward on Saturday night. $$ mt